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“Current High” Boost for SACEMS?

Posted in Momentum Investing, Strategic Allocation

A subscriber asked whether applying a filter that restricts monthly asset selections of the "Simple Asset Class ETF Momentum Strategy" (SACEMS) to those currently at an intermediate-term high improves performance. This strategy each month reforms a portfolio of winners from the following universe based on total return over a specified lookback interval:

PowerShares DB Commodity Index Tracking (DBC)
iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Index (EEM)
iShares MSCI EAFE Index (EFA)
SPDR Gold Shares (GLD)
iShares Russell 2000 Index (IWM)
SPDR S&P 500 (SPY)
iShares Barclays 20+ Year Treasury Bond (TLT)
Vanguard REIT ETF (VNQ)
3-month Treasury bills (Cash)

To investigate, we focus on the equally weighted (EW) Top 3 SACEMS portfolio and replace any selection not at an intermediate-term high with Cash. We define intermediate-term high based on monthly closes over a specified past interval ranging from one month to six months. We consider all gross performance metrics used for base SACEMS. Using monthly dividend adjusted closing prices for the asset class proxies and the yield for Cash over the period February 2006 (the earliest all ETFs are available) through July 2018 (150 months), we find that:

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