Investing Research Articles

…investors should perhaps lean toward stocks (real estate) when the electorate leans to the right (left).

In their February 2011 book chapter entitled “Seasonal Anomalies”, Constantine Dzhabarov and William Ziemba describe, update and assess several published U.S. stock market anomalies, most of which are directly or indirectly calendar-driven. They update using returns for stock index futures as a low-friction approach to exploiting calendar anomalies. They acknowledge the possible materiality of data… Keep Reading

Eric Singer, manager of the Congressional Effect Fund (CEFFX), introduces his 2012 book, Trade the Congressional Effect: How to Profit from Congress’s Impact on the Stock Market, by stating: “This book provides a new, empirically objective way to understand day by day what our government takes away from all of us. It shows in hard numbers what… Keep Reading

Are there predictable dollar exchange rate trends according to which U.S. political party is in power? In their March 2024 paper entitled “Presidential Cycles and Exchange Rates”, Pasquale Della Corte and Hsuan Fu investigate whether the party holding the U.S. presidency predicts the dollar exchange rate. Their presidential cycle starts in November with a presidential… Keep Reading

…evidence indicates that U.S. stock market returns may be significantly predictable during economic and political crises, but not during market bubbles and crashes. Investor misreaction to crises, not economic fundamentals, appear to drive stock return predictability.

…stocks have significantly outperformed less risky asset classes in the U.S. for over 200 years. Volatility comes with the outperformance.

“The variables that economists have found to be associated with increases in per capita income, to sum up, fall under two headings: investment and institutions.”

We evaluate here the Forbes.com commentary of Ken Fisher regarding the broad U.S. stock market since the beginning of 2000. Ken Fisher is Chief Executive Officer and Chief Investment Officer of Fisher Investments, which operates under the assumption that “supply and demand of securities are the sole determinants of securities pricing.” They believe that, to… Keep Reading

As suggested by a reader, we evaluate here the public stock market forecasts of Louis Navellier. Forecasts since the beginning of 2004 come from his weekly “Marketmail” archive. Pre-2004 forecasts (back to March 2001) come indirectly via MarketWatch columns. Louis Navellier is Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer and Chief Investment Officer of Navellier… Keep Reading

Do hopes and fears of U.S. election outcomes, and associated political machinations, alter the “normal” seasonal variation in monthly stock market returns? To check, we compare average returns and variabilities (standard deviations of returns) by calendar month for the S&P 500 Index during years with and without quadrennial U.S. presidential elections and biennial congressional elections…. Keep Reading