Investing Research Articles

…investors should perhaps lean toward stocks (real estate) when the electorate leans to the right (left).

In their February 2011 book chapter entitled “Seasonal Anomalies”, Constantine Dzhabarov and William Ziemba describe, update and assess several published U.S. stock market anomalies, most of which are directly or indirectly calendar-driven. They update using returns for stock index futures as a low-friction approach to exploiting calendar anomalies. They acknowledge the possible materiality of data… Keep Reading

Eric Singer, manager of the Congressional Effect Fund (CEFFX), introduces his 2012 book, Trade the Congressional Effect: How to Profit from Congress’s Impact on the Stock Market, by stating: “This book provides a new, empirically objective way to understand day by day what our government takes away from all of us. It shows in hard numbers what… Keep Reading

Are there predictable dollar exchange rate trends according to which U.S. political party is in power? In their March 2024 paper entitled “Presidential Cycles and Exchange Rates”, Pasquale Della Corte and Hsuan Fu investigate whether the party holding the U.S. presidency predicts the dollar exchange rate. Their presidential cycle starts in November with a presidential… Keep Reading

…for the sake of realism, investment strategy developers should rigorously examine the defensibility of any assumptions embedded in their inference processes.

How might crypto-assets transform finance? In their December 2020 paper entitled “DeFi and the Future of Finance”, Campbell Harvey, Ashwin Ramachandran and Joey Santoro examine the potential for decentralized finance (DeFi) to disrupt traditional financial infrastructure. They summarize origins and essential features of DeFi, its potential to improve traditional finance and its risks. They also… Keep Reading

…stocks have significantly outperformed less risky asset classes in the U.S. for over 200 years. Volatility comes with the outperformance.

“The variables that economists have found to be associated with increases in per capita income, to sum up, fall under two headings: investment and institutions.”

We evaluate here the Forbes.com commentary of Ken Fisher regarding the broad U.S. stock market since the beginning of 2000. Ken Fisher is Chief Executive Officer and Chief Investment Officer of Fisher Investments, which operates under the assumption that “supply and demand of securities are the sole determinants of securities pricing.” They believe that, to… Keep Reading

…evidence suggests that fear of disasters accounts for large fractions, perhaps most on average, of both the equity risk premium and the volatility risk premium.