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Investing Research Articles

84 Research Articles

Party in Power and Currency Exchange Rates

Are there predictable dollar exchange rate trends according to which U.S. political party is in power? In their March 2024 paper entitled “Presidential Cycles and Exchange Rates”, Pasquale Della Corte and Hsuan Fu investigate whether the party holding the U.S. presidency predicts the dollar exchange rate. Their presidential cycle starts in November with a presidential… Keep Reading

Survey of Seasonal Anomalies

In their February 2011 book chapter entitled “Seasonal Anomalies”, Constantine Dzhabarov and William Ziemba describe, update and assess several published U.S. stock market anomalies, most of which are directly or indirectly calendar-driven. They update using returns for stock index futures as a low-friction approach to exploiting calendar anomalies. They acknowledge the possible materiality of data… Keep Reading

A Few Notes on Trade the Congressional Effect

Eric Singer, manager of the Congressional Effect Fund (CEFFX), introduces his 2012 book, Trade the Congressional Effect: How to Profit from Congress’s Impact on the Stock Market, by stating: “This book provides a new, empirically objective way to understand day by day what our government takes away from all of us. It shows in hard numbers what… Keep Reading

Left Versus Right Down Under

…investors should perhaps lean toward stocks (real estate) when the electorate leans to the right (left).

Fear of Disasters?

…evidence suggests that fear of disasters accounts for large fractions, perhaps most on average, of both the equity risk premium and the volatility risk premium.

Crypto Transformation of Finance?

How might crypto-assets transform finance? In their December 2020 paper entitled “DeFi and the Future of Finance”, Campbell Harvey, Ashwin Ramachandran and Joey Santoro examine the potential for decentralized finance (DeFi) to disrupt traditional financial infrastructure. They summarize origins and essential features of DeFi, its potential to improve traditional finance and its risks. They also… Keep Reading

Evaluating Country Investment Risk

How should global investors assess country sovereign bond and equity risks? In his July 2024 paper entitled “Country Risk: Determinants, Measures and Implications – The 2024 Edition”, Aswath Damodaran examines country risk from multiple perspectives. To estimate a country risk premium, he considers measurements of both country government bond risk and country equity risk. Based… Keep Reading

Book Preview – Chapter 5

Here is this Friday’s installment of Avoiding Investment Strategy Flame-outs, a short book we are previewing for subscribers. Chapter previews will continue for the next four Fridays. Chapter 5: “Checking for Market Adaptation” “The market is a complex system with many interacting parts, and external influences. As in other social settings, there are two aspects to market… Keep Reading

Gurus and Incredible Certitude

…for the sake of realism, investment strategy developers should rigorously examine the defensibility of any assumptions embedded in their inference processes.

Hope for Stocks Around Inauguration Day?

Do investors swing toward optimism around U.S. presidential inauguration days, focusing on future opportunities? Or, does the day remind investors of political uncertainty and conflict? To investigate, we analyze daily returns of the S&P 500 Index around inauguration day. We consider subsamples of no party change and party change. Using inauguration dates since 1928 and… Keep Reading