March 27, 2010 - Individual Gurus - Guru Accuracy: 53%
As suggested by a reader, we evaluate here the stock market forecasts of Bob Brinker, mostly since August 2002. Evaluated predictions/recommendations come indirectly via MarketWatch columns, augmented separately by a few items from other sources. Mr. Brinker is editor of the Marketimer newsletter, which “covers stock market timing, federal reserve policy, specific mutual fund recommendations,… Keep Reading
March 27, 2010 - Individual Gurus - Guru Accuracy: 43%
We evaluate here the commentary in “Jubak’s Journal” at MSN Money since January 2001. Jim Jubak is the senior markets editor for MSN Money, with a background in journalism. The table below quotes forecast highlights from the cited source and shows the performance of the S&P 500 Index over various numbers of trading days after the… Keep Reading
March 27, 2010 - Individual Gurus - Guru Accuracy: 40%
As suggested by a reader, we evaluate here the weekly commentary of John Mauldin in “Thoughts from the Frontline” since January 2001 (the earliest available). According to his web site: “John Mauldin is a renowned financial expert, a New York Times best-selling author, and a pioneering online commentator. Each week, over 1 million readers turn… Keep Reading
September 14, 2006 - Animal Spirits, Fundamental Valuation
…past research indicates that there may be a good short-term price trade (but watch out for frontrunning) and a good longer-term volatility play for forced resignation of a CEO with replacement by an outsider.
September 6, 2010 - Individual Gurus
…evidence from straightforward tests on a fairly small sample does not support a belief that Jim Rohrbach’s timing approach (including service fees) beats simple benchmarks.
March 27, 2010 - Individual Gurus - Guru Accuracy: 50%
We evaluate here Tobin Smith’s weekly “WaveWire” commentary at ChangeWave.com since May 2000. Tobin Smith is founder and editor of ChangeWave Investing and author of related books, with a presence on radio and television. ChangeWave Investing is a service of ChangeWave Research, which “provides real world, real-time data and insight into the future performance of… Keep Reading
June 28, 2010 - Individual Investing
…evidence from a limited test period suggests that conservative investing motives tend to outperform a speculative motive and that both news-augmented intuition and fundamental analysis tend to outperform technical analysis.
November 16, 2010 - Animal Spirits, Individual Investing
Author Meir Statman states that his 2010 book What Investors Really Want “is about what we want from our investments. It is about how we think about our investments, how we feel about them, and how investment markets drive us crazy as we try to cajole them into giving us what we want… The sum… Keep Reading
June 21, 2011 - Individual Gurus - Guru Accuracy: 45%
As suggested by a reader, we evaluate here Gary Savage’s outlooks for the U.S. stock market since May 2007 as extracted from his current Smart Money Tracker blog (since March 2010) and its predecessor site. While Gary Savage states that his “main goal…for the next few years will be to keep investors focused on riding… Keep Reading
August 30, 2011 - Big Ideas
Will disinvestment of the baby boom generation retard U.S. equities? In their August 2011 letter entitled “Boomer Retirement: Headwinds for U.S. Equity Markets?”, flagged by a reader, Zheng Liu and Mark Spiegel revisit the relationship between U.S. age demographics and U.S. equity valuation as indicated by the lagged price-earnings ratio (P/E). They calculate P/E based… Keep Reading