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SACEMS with Overnight Return Capture

June 18, 2021 • Posted in Calendar Effects, Strategic Allocation

In view of research indicating that overnight (close-to-open) returns are on average significantly higher than open-to-close returns, a subscriber proposed an enhancement to the Simple Asset Class ETF Momentum Strategy (SACEMS), as follows:

  • Instead of ranking SACEMS assets at the market close on the last trading day of each month, rank them at the open.
  • Sell any assets leaving SACEMS portfolios at the open.
  • Buy any assets entering SACEMS portfolios at the close.

Due to complexity of precisely programming a backtest of this setup, we instead run the following tests:

  1. Compare average daily open-to-close and close-to-open returns for each SACEMS non-cash asset over available sample periods since July 2002.
  2. Compare SACEMS portfolio performances during July 2006 through May 2021 for: (a) ranking assets at the open on the last trading day of each month and executing all trades at the open; and, (b) ranking assets at the close on the last trading day of each month and executing all trades at the close (baseline SACEMS).
  3. Calculate SACEMS portfolio performances during July 2006 through May 2021 for a variation that ranks assets at the open on the last trading day of each month, liquidates SACEMS portfolios at the open and reforms them at the close. This variation is more aggressive in exploiting an overnight return effect than the proposed approach, but is easier to program.

We consider Top 1, equal-weighted (EW) Top 2 and EW Top 3 SACEMS portfolios. We focus on full-sample gross compound annual growth rate, gross annual Sharpe ratio and maximum drawdown based on monthly data for portfolio comparisons. Using dividend-adjusted opening and closing prices for all SACEMS assets during July 2002 through May 2021, we find that: (more…)

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