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Business Inventories and Stock Market Returns

December 29, 2021 • Posted in Economic Indicators

Do monthly business inventories data, released with a lag of about 1.5 months, reliably predict U.S. stock market behavior? To investigate, we relate monthly change in business inventories to monthly S&P 500 Index return. Using survey-based monthly seasonally adjusted business inventories and the S&P 500 Index during January 1992 (limited by business inventories data) through November 2021, we find that: (more…)

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