Update of a Lumber/Gold Risk-on/Risk-off Strategy

A subscriber asked for a performance comparison between 50% Simple Asset Class ETF Value Strategy (SACEVS) Best Value-50% Simple Asset Class ETF Momentum Strategy (SACEMS) equal-weighted top two (EW Top 2), rebalanced monthly (SACEVS-SACEMS 50-50), and a strategy that is each week in stocks or bonds according to whether the return on lumber is greater than the return on gold over the past 13 weeks (L-G Strategy). To test the latter strategy we use the following exchanged-traded fund (ETF) proxies:

• SPDR S&P 500 (SPY) for stocks.
• iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond (TLT) for bonds.
• Invesco MSCI Global Timber (CUT) for lumber.
• SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) for gold.

Using weekly dividend-adjusted prices for SPY, TLT, CUT and GLD during early February 2008 (limited by inception of CUT) through early February 2021 and roughly matched start and stop performance for monthly SACEVS-SACEMS 50-50 , we find that:

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