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Online, Real-time Test of AI Stock Picking

Steve LeCompte | | Posted in: Fundamental Valuation, Investing Expertise

Key Insight

AIEQ (AI-managed U.S. equity ETF) did not outperform SPY, with daily alpha of -0.01% and beta of 1.02; average daily return was 0.035% vs 0.047% (Oct 18, 2017–Sep 2023; daily and monthly dividend-adjusted closes; short sample).

Will equity funds "managed" by artificial intelligence (AI) outperform human investors? To investigate, we consider the performance of AI Powered Equity ETF (AIEQ). Per the offeror, the EquBot model supporting AIEQ: "...leverages IBM's Watson AI to conduct an objective, fundamental analysis of U.S. domiciled common stocks, including Special Purpose Acquisitions Corporations ("SPAC"), and real estate investment trusts ("REITs") based on up to ten years of historical data and apply that analysis to recent economic and news data... Each day, the EquBot Model...identifies approximately 30 to 200 companies with the greatest potential over the next twelve months for appreciation and their corresponding weights, targeting a maximum risk adjusted return versus the broader U.S. equity market. ...The EquBot model limits the weight of any individual company to 10%. At times, a significant portion of the Fund’s assets may consist of cash and cash equivalents." We use SPDR S&P 500 (SPY) as a simple benchmark for AIEQ performance. Using daily and monthly dividend-adjusted closes of AIEQ and SPY from AIEQ inception (October 18, 2017) through September 2023, we find that:

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