In response to "Bitcoin Trend Predicts U.S. Stock Market Return?", a subscriber suggested that bitcoin (BTC) price trend/return may be more strongly predictive of NASDAQ 100 Index (NDX) returns than of S&P 500 Index returns. To investigate, we relate BTC returns to NDX returns at daily, weekly and monthly frequencies. We rationalize the different trading schedules for these two series by excluding BTC trading dates that are not also NDX trading days. Most results are conceptual, but we test three versions of an NDX timing strategy based on prior BTC returns focused on compound annual growth rate (CAGR) and maximum drawdown (MaxDD). Using daily NDX levels and (pruned) BTC prices during 9/17/2014 (limited by the BTC series) through 3/4/2026, we find that:
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