Below is a weekly summary of our research findings for 3/9/26 through 3/13/26. These summaries give you a quick snapshot of our content the past week so that you can quickly decide what’s relevant to...

Which is more important, knowing what direction to trade or knowing when to enter a trade? In his February 2026 paper entitled “Who Profits from Prediction Markets? Execution, not Information”, Joshua Della Vedova decomposes prediction...

Are there cryptocurrencies that are so alike that they generally track each other and reliably revert whenever they diverge? In their December 2025 paper entitled “Pairs Trading in Crypto”, Sasha Stoikov, Dora Xu, Shijie Shao,...

The Inflation Forecast now incorporates actual total and core Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for February 2026. The actual total (core) inflation rate is a slightly lower than (a little lower than) forecasted.

How do exchange-traded-funds (ETF) focused on data centers, an arguably hot theme, perform? To investigate, we consider four such ETFs, all currently available, as follows: iShares U.S. Digital Infrastructure and Real Estate ETF (IDGT) Pacer...

“Beat the Market with Hot-Anomaly Switching?” concludes that “a trader who periodically switches to the hottest known anomaly based on a rolling window of past performance may be able to beat the market. Anomalies appear...

“Simple Sector ETF Momentum Strategy” investigates performances of simple momentum strategies for the following nine sector exchange-traded funds (ETF) executed with Standard & Poor’s Depository Receipts (SPDR): Materials Select Sector SPDR (XLB) Energy Select Sector...

Below is a weekly summary of our research findings for 3/2/26 through 3/6/26. These summaries give you a quick snapshot of our content the past week so that you can quickly decide what’s relevant to...

A subscriber requested a test of Ray Dalio‘s All Weather (AW) portfolio with different rebalancing frequencies, allocated to exchange-traded funds (ETF) as asset class proxies as follows: 30% – Vanguard Total Stock Market (VTI) 40%...

Can investors use leveraged exchange-traded funds (ETF) to construct attractive versions of simple 60%/40% (60/40) and 40%/60% (40/60) stocks-bonds portfolios? In their March 2020 presentation package entitled “Robust Leveraged ETF Portfolios Extending Classic 40/60 Portfolios...

How do returns of different asset classes recently interact with inflation as measured by monthly change in the not seasonally adjusted, all-commodities producer price index (PPI) from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics? To investigate,...

A subscriber requested review of the Golden Butterfly (GB) portfolio, which assigns equal weights to the total stock market, small-capitalization value stocks, long-term government bonds, short-term government bonds and gold. To investigate, we use the...

“Big 10 Effect?” looks at recent performance of a portfolio that annually picks the 10 NASDAQ stocks with the largest market capitalizations. One reason these firms get big is high past returns. Does a simple...

We have updated monthly allocations and performance data for the Simple Asset Class ETF Momentum Strategy (SACEMS) and the Simple Asset Class ETF Value Strategy (SACEVS). We have also updated performance data for the Combined...

Below is a weekly summary of our research findings for 2/23/26 through 2/27/26. These summaries give you a quick snapshot of our content the past week so that you can quickly decide what’s relevant to...

The home page, Simple Asset Class ETF Momentum Strategy (SACEMS) and Simple Asset Class ETF Value Strategy (SACEVS) now show preliminary positions for March 2026. SACEMS rankings for positions 2 and 3 are somewhat close,...

How have different asset classes recently interacted with the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX)? To investigate, we look at lead-lag relationships between VIX and returns for each of the following 10 exchange-traded fund (ETF) asset class proxies:...

What does very long term experience say about the best way to protect a conventional global 60% equities-40% bonds (60/40) portfolio against drawdowns? In their November 2025 paper entitled “The Best Defensive Strategies: Two Centuries...

“Simplified Offensive, Defensive and Risk Mode Identification Momentum Strategy” and “Size Effect-based Hybrid Asset Allocation Strategy” describe strategies that each month hold offensive (defensive) assets when average return on iShares TIPS Bond ETF (TIP) over...

Do firms that spend big on research and development (R&D) relative to revenue outperform in the future? In his January 2026 paper entitled “R&D Alpha: Investment Intensity and Long-Term Stock Returns”, flagged by a subscriber,...

Can exploiting the relatively high betas of small and midsize stocks according to regimes defined by past iShares TIPS Bond ETF (TIP) returns beat the market? In his January 2026 paper entitled “A Regime-Aware Market...

Below is a weekly summary of our research findings for 2/17/26 through 2/20/26. These summaries give you a quick snapshot of our content the past week so that you can quickly decide what’s relevant to...

Is proximity to doom good or bad for the U.S. stock market? To measure proximity to doom, we use the Doomsday Clock “Minutes-to-Midnight” metric, revised intermittently in late January via the Bulletin of the Atomic...

“Seasonal Strategy for QQQ?” finds an interesting even year-odd year effect in Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ) annual returns. The Trading Calendar and “Monthly Returns During Presidential and Congressional Election Years” find notable differences in S&P 500...

Does finance professor David Kass, who presents annual lists of stock picks on Seeking Alpha, make good selections? To investigate, we consider his picks of “10 Stocks for 2020”, “16 Stocks For 2021”, “12 Stocks...