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Showing results 1 - 10 of 16 for the search term: Cramer.

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Jim Cramer Using the S&P Oscillator

A reader asked about the usefulness of the S&P Short-range Oscillator as sometimes used by Jim Cramer to forecast U.S. stock market returns. The self-reported “Performance” of the oscillator, relying on in-sample visual inspection with snooped thresholds, is of small use. Since continuous historical values of the indicator are not publicly available, we conduct an out-of-sample test by:

  1. Searching CNBC.com for “Oscillator” “Mad Money” and just “Oscillator” on October 3, 2019 and identifying articles with U.S. stock market forecasts from Jim Cramer based on the S&P Short-range Oscillator.
  2. Extracting the date for each forecast and determining whether it is call to be “In” or “Out” of the market.
  3. Calculating for each call a cumulative S&P 500 Index return starting at the next open after the article date (generally timestamped after the market close) for 21 trading days.
  4. Computing average cumulative performances of “In” and “Out” calls.
  5. Comparing these averages to that for all days spanning the search results.

Using the 15 qualifying articles and daily opening levels of the S&P 500 Index during June 16, 2008 through October 31, 2019, we find that: Keep Reading

Jim Cramer Deconstructed

We evaluate here the New York Metro “Bottom Line” commentary of Jim Cramer regarding the stock market via his archived articles since May 2000. Jim Cramer is among the most visible and prolific members of the financial media. He is Director, Co-founder and ubiquitous contributor at TheStreet.com, where he offers his ActionAlertsPlus service. He is also the host of Mad Money on CNBC. He makes hundreds of buy-hold-sell recommendations on individual stocks each month via these channels. We use here his New York Metro commentary because of its lengthy archive and manageable pace. We selected from that commentary all articles which address the future direction of the overall stock market, using the subsequent behavior of the S&P 500 index to judge accuracy. The table below quotes forecast highlights from the cited source and shows the performance of the S&P 500 Index over various numbers of trading days after the publication date for each item. Grading takes into account more detailed market behavior when appropriate. Red plus (minus) signs to the right of specific forecasts indicate those graded right (wrong) based on subsequent market behavior, while red zeros denote any complex forecasts graded both right and wrong. We conclude that: Keep Reading

Investing in Jim Cramer’s Money Madness

Do the stock recommendations of guru Jim Cramer on CNBC’s Mad Money move the market? Do they beat the market? In their May 2009 paper entitled “Investing in Mad Money: Price and Style Effects”, Paul Bolster and Emery Trahan examine the market impacts and performances of buy and sell recommendations made by Jim Cramer on Mad Money. Using daily closing prices for a sample of 1,387 clear buy recommendations and 534 clear sell recommendations from YourMoneyWatch.com [no longer active] spanning July 28, 2005 through December 31, 2007, they conclude that: Keep Reading

Jim Cramer Offers You His Protection?

Because of the uncertainties involved in choosing stocks, investors/traders are constantly seeking affirmation of their picks. One place they go for affirmation is Jim Cramer’s Mad Money on CNBC. When you get Jim Cramer’s blessing, you’ve got an edge. Your returns will be better than those of your too-good-for-Cramer peers. Or will they? We construct a sample of Mr. Cramer’s “buys” and “sells” using: Keep Reading

Jim Cramer’s Gaps and Reversals

Are Jim Cramer’s stock recommendations on CNBC’s Mad Money most meaningful for small-capitalization stocks, for which prices are most susceptible to influence by the concerted behavior of a group of individual investors? In their September 2007 working paper entitled “The Performance and Impact of Stock Picks Mentioned on Mad Money, Bryan Lim and Joao Rosario evaluate the show’s ability to move markets over the short term and to forecast winners and losers over the long term. Using a sample of 10,589 Mad Money buy and sell recommendations representing 2,074 distinct firms, either initiated by Jim Cramer or provided by him in response to callers, from shows aired between June 28, 2005 and December 22, 2006, they conclude that: Keep Reading

Jim Cramer Comments on Our Evaluations of His Advice

Jim Cramer sent comments on our evaluations of his advice (“Jim Cramer Deconstructed” and “Cramer Offers You His Protection”). Because of the nature of Mr. Cramer’s initial message, we retain the personal nature of the subsequent exchange with slight editing (spacing and punctuation) for readability, and substitution of descriptive links for long URLs. The correspondence follows: Keep Reading

Jim Cramer’s Mad, Mad, Mad, Mad Market?

Can traders exploit irrational reactions to Jim Cramer’s stock recommendations by viewers of CNBC’s Mad Money? In their March 2006 paper entitled “Is the Market Mad? Evidence from Mad Money, Joseph Engelberg, Caroline Sasseville and Jared Williams measure the market’s reaction to Mr. Cramer’s buy recommendations. Using a sample of 246 initial recommendations made by Jim Cramer on Mad Money episodes between July 28, 2005 and October 14, 2005, as recorded by YourMoneyWatch.com, they conclude that: Keep Reading

Weekly Summary of Research Findings: 10/28/19 – 11/1/19

Below is a weekly summary of our research findings for 10/28/19 through 11/1/19. These summaries give you a quick snapshot of our content the past week so that you can quickly decide what’s relevant to your investing needs.

Subscribers: To receive these weekly digests via email, click here to sign up for our mailing list. Keep Reading

A Few Notes on Get Rich Carefully

In the introduction to his 2013 book entitled Get Rich Carefully, television personality and former hedge fund manger Jim Cramer describes it as: “…tailored for those who are befuddled about and distrustful of stocks but seek better returns than they’ve gotten from somnambulant managers and underperforming mutual funds. It’s meant for those who think they can profit from stock price gyrations but don’t know how and why stocks really go up and down. …Bond funds have gone from cautious friends to reckless, wily enemies. Real estate seems played out, gold stymied, commodities kaput. But stocks? Let’s go figure them out. Let’s go harness them together. Let’s go get rich with them, carefully this time, so you don’t have to give it back. Let’s go forward and makes some hay, because at last the sun is shining, and we have the tools to harvest the money that’s within our grasp after years of toiling in the most barren of vineyards.” Based on his experiences over the past eight years and his consequent rethinking of how stocks work nowhe concludes that: Keep Reading

Guru Grades

Can equity market experts, whether self-proclaimed or endorsed by others (such as publications), reliably provide stock market timing guidance? Do some experts clearly show better market timing intuition than others?

To investigate, during 2005 through 2012 we collected 6,582 forecasts for the U.S. stock market offered publicly by 68 experts, bulls and bears employing technical, fundamental and sentiment indicators. Collected forecasts include those in archives, such that the oldest forecast in the sample is from the end of 1998. For this final report, we have graded all these forecasts.

We assess forecasting acumen of stock market gurus as a group and rank them as individuals according to accuracy. The assessment of aggregate guru stock market forecasting performance is much more reliable, based on sample size and duration, than the evaluations of individuals.

We have performed completeness and integrity checks on the forecast grades, but some errors may remain.

Following the advice of experts is an investment technique. We intend this study as an aid to investors in learning mode regarding how much attention (and funds) this technique merits. This study is not a test of whether guru opinions and arguments are interesting, stimulating or useful in ways other than anticipating the behavior of the broad U.S. stock market. This kind of forecasting ability tested is different from, but may be related to, stock picking expertise. Keep Reading