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CPI and Stocks Over the Short and Intermediate Terms

| | Posted in: Economic Indicators

Do investors reliably react over short and intermediate terms to changes in the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI), a logical measure of the wealth discount rate? Using monthly total and core (excluding food and energy) CPI releases (for all items, not seasonally adjusted) from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) and contemporaneous S&P 500 Index opens and closes during mid-January 1994 (earliest available CPI release dates) through mid-September 2020 (321 releases), we find that:

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