Objective research to aid investing decisions

Value Investing Strategy (Strategy Overview)

Allocations for July 2020 (Final)

Momentum Investing Strategy (Strategy Overview)

Allocations for July 2020 (Final)
1st ETF 2nd ETF 3rd ETF

Avoiding Negative Stock Market Returns

| | Posted in: Equity Premium

Is there an exploitable way to predict when short-term stock market return will be negative? In his June 2018 paper entitled "Predictable Downturns", Carter Davis tests a random forest regression-based forecasting model to predict next-day U.S. stock market downturns. He uses the value-weighted return of a portfolio of the 10 U.S. stocks with the largest market capitalizations at the end of the prior year minus the U.S. Treasury bill (T-bill) yield as a proxy for excess market return. He employs a two-step test process:

  1. Use a rolling 10-year historical window of 143 input variables (economic, equity factor, market volatility, stock trading, calendar) to find when the probability of negative portfolio daily excess return is at least 55%.
  2. Calculate whether the average portfolio gross excess return of all such days is in fact significantly less than zero.

He corrects for data snooping bias associated with the modeling approach. He further investigates which input variables are most important and tests a market timing strategy that holds the 10-stock portfolio (T-bills) when predicted portfolio return is negative (non-negative) as specified above. Using data for the input variables and returns for test portfolio stocks during July 1926 through July 2017, he finds that:

Please or subscribe to continue reading...
Gain access to hundreds of premium articles, our momentum strategy, full RSS feeds, and more!  Learn more

Daily Email Updates
Filter Research
  • Research Categories (select one or more)