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Tim Wood: You Have Been Warned!

| Last Updated: October 5, 2011 | Posted in: Individual Gurus

Guru Accuracy Rating
This is below average. Current guru average is 47%

We evaluate here the market commentary of Tim Wood, as available via the Financial Sense archive from April 2003 through June 2010 and currently via Financial Sense. Tim Wood, who maintains the “Cycles News & Views” web site, derives his market outlook from “technical studies…based on his knowledge of both Market Cycles and Dow Theory.” He considers that “these tools are overlooked and/or forgotten today when they are most needed.” The table below quotes forecast highlights from the cited source and shows the performance of the S&P 500 Index over various numbers of trading days after the publication date for each item. Grading takes into account more detailed market behavior when appropriate. Red plus (minus) signs to the right of specific forecasts indicate those graded right (wrong) based on subsequent market behavior, while red zeros denote any complex forecasts graded both right and wrong. We conclude that:

  • Tim Wood times the market using a combination of his interpretations of  the Dow Theory and stock market cycle analysis.
  • Tim Wood’s forecasts are often ambiguous.
  • Tim Wood’s forecast sample is moderate, as is confidence in the measurement of his accuracy.

In 5/31/09 emails, Tim Wood requested that we remove this review, which he regards as an injustice because it is based on “free material, which is not complete analysis and which is really intended as teasers.” See his full request for details.

See Guru Grades for a snapshot of the accuracy of various experts in predicting the direction of the U.S. stock market, including links to evaluations of the commentaries of other individual market pundits and gurus.

    S&P 500 Index  
Date Comments from:  Tim Wood via Financial Sense 5-Day Return 21-Day Return 63-Day Return 254-Day Return  
10/5/11 …the overall technical data suggests that a larger bear trap is likely to be set before the real decline into the Phase II low takes root. 5.5% 10.2% 11.6% 27.3% +
9/21/11 As a rule, the market does what it has to in order to confuse the most people. …it seems that the most confusing thing the market could do is to continue to rally. -1.3% 4.2% 3.3% 24.9% +
8/24/11 …longer-term, I am still bearish. But, at this time,…I’m not convinced that the bear market rally is done. 3.5% -3.5% 1.3% 19.8% +
8/10/11 The question now is, “Is this the return of the bear market?” I don’t think so, at least not yet. … the markets are now making a secondary low point…this means that a rally will follow. …In fact, there is evidence that suggests this may be a very good buying opportunity and that we could still see a much more surprising rally than most anyone can imagine at this point. 6.5% 3.0% 12.5% 25.3% +
7/27/11 I have had numerous questions asking if this non-confirmation is an indication that the advance out of the 2009 low has run its course. The short-term answer is, no. -3.4% -11.2% -3.9% 6.2%
6/29/11 …this counter-trend advance in accordance with Dow theory still remains intact. More importantly, from a cyclical perspective this advance will remain intact… 3.5% -1.2% -10.1% 4.4%
6/1/11 I do not believe that we have seen the bear market bottom or that the advance out of the March 2009 low is a new bull market. -2.7% 0.5% -7.9% -2.8%
4/20/11 …the rallies out of the 2009 lows are likely counter-trend bear market affairs… There is another downturn ahead of us. 2.3% 0.2% -0.3% 3.1%
3/11/11 …the bounce advance out of the 2009 low in equities is a bear market rally that will ultimately prove to separate Phase I from Phase II of a much longer term bear market. That view as not changed… -1.9% 1.5% -1.2% 6.9%
11/26/10 I continue to believe, based on the evidence at hand, that the rally out the March 2009 low is a large scale bear market rally that should ultimately prove to separate Phase I from Phase II of the much larger and ongoing secular bear market. 3.0% 5.8% 11.0% 0.5%
11/12/10 …the unwinding of this bear market should have much further to go. Perhaps, QEII will keep this rally going a while longer. But, I don’t think that QEII or QEIII or even QEIV will ever be able to ultimately save the market from the natural forces. 0.0% 3.5% 10.8% 4.9%
10/29/10 …once the I’s are all dotted and the T’s are all crossed…, the rally separating Phase I of this long-term secular bear market from Phase II will be followed by the resumption of the bear market that began in 2007. …The Phase II decline and the resumption of the bear market is out there. 3.6% -0.2% 7.9% 3.0%
10/1/10 …based on my knowledge of Dow theory phasing I do not believe that we have seen the bear market bottom. 1.6% 3.3% 9.7% -1.9%
9/3/10 In accordance with Dow theory the bullish primary trend associated with the bear market rally that began at the March 2009 low still remains intact. 1.6% 5.1% 10.6% 8.5% +
7/9/10 My read on Dow theory is that the bullish primary trend change, which followed the March 2009 low, still remains intact…a proper Dow theory trend change will eventually occur, but this has not yet been the case. -1.2% 4.6% 7.6% 21.9% +
6/11/10 …we have been in the eye of the storm and…we now have to ride out the rest of the storm…and its deflationary forces as well as the Phase II bear market decline for equities.  2.4% 0.3% 1.2% 18.0%
5/28/10 …it is my continued belief that the advance out of the March 2009 low…will ultimately prove to separate Phase I from Phase II of a much longer-term secular bear market. …the deflationary fallout into the Phase II decline will be far worse than what was seen between October 2007 and March 2009. -3.6% -4.4% -3.9% 20.7%
4/30/10 …the ongoing rally is the rally that will ultimately prove to separate Phase I from Phase II of a much longer-term secular bear market. -6.4% -9.8% -7.2% 14.3%
1/29/10 My cycles work tells me that there will be a rebound rally on both a short and an intermediate degree ahead. -0.7% 4.1% 12.4% 21.8% +
1/15/10 …I do see change on the horizon for 2010. …Once this rally is over, …the return of the bear… You have been warned. -3.5% -3.2% 4.9% 12.8%
12/18/09 Once this rally has run its course the big surprise will be the Phase II decline and history shows us that Phase II declines are the most destructive. …the longer this bear market rally lasts, the more damaging it will ultimately be once it is over. You have been Warned!  2.3% 1.3% 5.7% 14.2%
11/20/09 …Intermediate-term, the advance is still intact. …Longer-term, …this is likely the rally separating Phase I from Phase II of the ongoing secular bear market. 0.4% 2.4% 0.3% 9.8% 0
11/6/09 …nothing has changed with regard to this being a larger degree bear market rally… For now, the rally officially lives on. 2.3% 2.1% -1.2% 14.0% 0
10/23/09 Intermediate-term, equities are overbought and I do see weakness on the horizon. …Longer-term, …this is still a bear market rally within the context of a much longer-term secular bear market. -4.0% 2.5% 1.6% 9.5% 0
8/14/09 For now, this rally lives on… 2.2% 4.8% 9.4% 9.0% +
7/17/09 New Bull Market? …The answer is, No! …the counter-trend bear market rally that began at the March 2009 low may not have run its course. 4.1% 4.2% 16.1% 13.7%
6/19/09 …this false optimism and the lust for things to return to “normal” is going to cost the average investor dearly once this counter-trend move concludes. -0.3% 3.6% 15.7% 18.5%
5/29/09 Warning! …we are in the midst of Kondratieff Winter, not the beginning of a new bull market. These counter-trend moves are more like “Indian Summer” and the deep freeze of winter will return. 2.3% 0.9% 11.9% 19.5%
5/15/09 The winter season in the market is not over and we all know what happens to “green spouts” when the reality of winter sets back in. 0.5% 3.3% 14.7% 26.3%
5/8/09 This is a bear market rally… Until it turns down, this counter-trend rally will remain intact and higher prices will remain possible. -5.0% 1.4% 7.3% 26.1% +
4/3/09 …we are seeing false hopes and optimism that will ultimately only serve to suck the public back for another slaughter. …based on the statistics, the bear market is not over and that this is a bear market rally. 1.9% 7.3% 6.4% 40.8%
3/20/09 The equity markets are still operating within the context of a massive secular bear market and the bounce that is currently underway is nothing more than a bear market rally. 6.2% 10.6% 19.5% 51.9%
3/6/09 …we are amidst a very similarly structured market to that of the 1930 to 1932 period…there will be bounces along the way and…the talking heads and clueless politicians will say that the low has been seen. …Don’t buy their hype. 10.7% 22.3% 37.9% 67.6%
2/20/09 …at the 2007 New Orleans Investor Conference…I first revealed the possibility of a 1930 to 1932 style setup occurring following that extended 4-year cycle advance. Don’t buy the current hype. -4.5% 6.9% 17.3% 43.5%
2/8/09 …the existing bearish primary trend must still be considered to be in force until it is authoritatively reversed.  -9.3% -17.1% 6.8% 24.0% +
1/12/09 …this advance is a bull trap and that once it turns down, the carnage will likely continue. …it would be prudent not to get too caught up in the hype as this intermediate-term rally runs its course. -7.5% -4.2% -1.3% 32.0% +
12/12/08 …I see no evidence at this time to say that the November bottom has marked THE bottom or that the bear market is now over. …I view any relief rallies from these oversold levels merely as intermission. 0.9% -4.2% -14.3% 26.1% +
10/31/08 This bear market is not over. You have been warned!  -3.9% -12.4% -14.8% 8.0% +
10/17/08 …the market is again setting up for another potentially very nasty leg down.  -11.0% -13.7% -13.7% 9.7% +
10/3/08 What we are dealing with is the wrath of Kondratieff Winter, which is about the purging of excess credit. Along with that comes deflation and along with that global stock markets enter into extended declines. -18.2% -12.1% -15.2% -3.8% +
9/19/08 …the previously established bearish trend…remains intact… -3.3% -23.9% -27.9% -15.5% +
9/5/08 …we aren’t there [“Stock Markets Reach Bottom and Begin New Bull Markets”] yet.  0.8% -14.9% -24.6% -16.8% +
6/27/08 …nothing has occurred to reverse the bearish primary trend that was established last November. -2.0% -1.2% -5.4% -27.8% +
6/13/08 …I have to give the balance of the evidence to the bear. …caution is advised! -3.1% -10.7% -8.2% -33.0% +
5/30/08 As I read the averages, I think that the May top marked the last secondary high point and that we are approaching a new secondary low point in the not too distant future. …Given the pain that rising commodity prices have inflicted, it is hard to imagine that this will result in a bullish outcome for stocks. -2.8% -8.6% -8.5% -33.5% +
4/18/08 Personally, I have been and continue to give the balance of the evidence to the bull at this point. I believe that we will be getting a confirmed Dow theory bullish trend change in the future… 0.5% 2.6% -9.4% -39.3%
3/7/08 …we are operating in an environment with the existing Dow theory primary bearish trend, a Dow theory non-confirmation and the backdrop surrounding the unwinding of this extended 4-year cycle. -0.4% 5.6% 8.6% -44.2%
2/22/08 …this counter-trend rally remains intact. -1.7% 0.0% 2.8% -43.5%
2/8/08 The decline into the 4-year cycle is still alive and well. The Dow theory primary trend change that occurred in November is still alive and well. …Lowering rates in this environment will not save the equity markets. 1.4% -0.8% 4.3% -37.4%
1/25/08 I’m now telling you that the dust has not settled and that the bear has a few more tricks up his sleeve. You have been warned once again! 4.9% 3.8% 4.4% -34.3%
1/11/08 …what is now the second longest 4-year cycle in stock market history is now only beginning to contract. You have been warned yet again! -5.4% -3.7% -4.9% -39.9% +
12/28/07 …as we move into 2008 the evidence emphatically suggests that the now Primary Bearish Trend, in accordance with Dow theory, should take the equity markets down into the very over extended 4-year cycle low in 2008. …The straw that finally breaks the camel’s back may be closer than you think. You have been warned! -4.2% -8.3% -10.5% -38.9% +
12/14/07 …the November 21st Dow theory primary trend change is indeed signaling stormy business conditions… 1.1% -6.5% -13.0% -38.4% +
11/30/07 …we are now operating within the context of a Primary Bear market… 1.6% -2.3% -10.1% -41.2% +
11/2/07 …we have an extremely stretched 4-year cycle in the equity markets. The decline into this overdone 4-year cycle low will serve to correct the entire advance up out of the 2002 low. -3.7% -3.1% -8.5% -36.9% +
10/19/07 …the pressures of this very extended 4-year cycle advance continue mounting and the earthquake will ultimately follow regardless of what the Fed does. …the stock market risk remains very high. 2.3% -4.5% -11.7% -39.5% +
9/21/07 The markets are indeed stretched, the Fed is afraid of even the small correction…their actions are proof of their fears and of the financial crisis that is now facing the market, and there is a financial train wreck coming. You have been warned, Again! 0.1% -1.3% -4.8% -22.3% +
9/7/07 …the stock market has been in one of the longest 4-year cycles in stock market history without the required and natural correction. We are only just beginning to see the unwinding. You have been warned. 2.1% 6.8% 2.2% -15.2%
8/24/07 …we are truly sitting on a house of cards… There is an awakening coming and you have been warned. -0.4% 2.6% -4.2% -13.4% +
8/10/07 The market is stretched well beyond any historical norm and this cannot continue forever. …The internals stink and the decline into the now very extended 4-year cycle low is coming… You have been warned! -0.5% 1.2% 1.5% -11.5%
7/13/07 …indicators are positive and the Primary trend according to Dow theory remains bullish. But, at the same time the longer-term data also continues to tell us that this is a very extended and overdone move of historic proportion and that there is a sizable downturn still to be reckoned with. -1.2% -6.4% 0.6% -19.8% +
7/6/07 …odds continue to suggest that the market remains in a very stretched and overdue 4-year cycle. With most people now in disbelief about the 4-year cycle, the stage is set to take most market participants down along with the overdue 4-year cycle low. …This advance is overdone in time and is very overbought with lagging internals to boot. 1.4% -4.1% 0.6% -18.7% +
5/4/07 …the intermediate-term buy signal…remains intact. -0.2% 1.7% -2.2% -7.2%
4/20/07 …I still do not believe that the advance is well. …there is still an unwinding into the 4-year cycle low somewhere ahead. 0.7% 2.7% 4.6% -7.0%
4/6/07 …according to Dow theory, the longer-term trend is still positive. …the…Cycle Turn Indicator that I rely on for the intermediate-term market direction…remains positive today. But, …the market risk in association with a downturn into the 4-year cycle low remains. 1.7% 4.7% 5.9% -5.8% +
3/9/07 …the decline we saw last week was most likely the initial leg down into the 4-year cycle low, which still lies ahead. -1.1% 3.2% 6.3% -6.7%
2/9/07 This confirmation merely serves, just as the previous confirmations did, to reconfirm both the Secondary trend and now with both averages at all time new highs the latest confirmation also serves to confirm the Primary trend. I can also tell you that this confirmation does not signal a “new” bull market, but rather reconfirms the existing bull market. 1.2% -4.2% 4.7% -4.9% +
1/26/07 …the Secondary Trend…remains intact…the Primary Trend is also positive. Cyclically, the longer-term trend remains positive as well. …this advance cannot be called done. 1.8% -1.6% 5.1% -4.7% +
12/22/06 …the stock market is still hanging on from these reinflation efforts but is increasingly moving on to thinner and thinner ice….in spite of the fact that the stock market is at all time highs, I don’t like what I see and the overall picture here makes me nervous. 0.4% 0.8% 1.3% 4.8%
12/15/06 …when we add the current divergences between the averages and the internals along with the extreme complacency and statistics that continue to tell us that the 4-year cycle low is still ahead, it is reason for concern. …Nonetheless, until an actual sell signal is triggered, these divergences can continue and the market can press even higher. -1.1% 0.2% -1.1% 2.3% +
12/8/06 …these non-confirmations are only one of the many reasons for my concern and caution for the ongoing advance, but are not sell signals. …from a Dow theory perspective, this advance is in fact still intact. 1.2% 1.0% -2.3% 5.6% +
11/24/06 …conditions are ripe for a top…the mature, overbought and non-confirming averages should not be ignored. -0.3% 1.1% -0.1% 4.9%
11/10/06 …we are entering a window of great market risk. 1.5% 2.2% 4.6% 5.1%
11/3/06 The market is still positive, but it is nonetheless moving into an important top and not out of a 4-year cycle low. No, that still lies ahead. 1.2% 3.7% 6.1% 8.1% +
10/20/06 …the Primary and the Secondary trend remain positive… But, according to Dow theory, all is not quite well. 0.6% 2.4% 4.3% 10.7%
10/13/06 …I remain cautious today.  …this advance is mature and subject to at least an intermediate-term top. …this advance is not done… 0.2% 1.4% 4.9% 12.8% +
10/6/06 …we do not yet have a top, so yes, the picture is still bullish. 1.2% 2.2% 4.7% 15.2% +
9/29/06 Bettering the May high lessened the statistical expectations for the decline into the 4-year cycle low, but it did not change the fact that the 4-year cycle low is still ahead. …look for what will be perceived as a false low coming, but that will not be THE low. …that…is still yet to come. 1.0% 3.2% 6.7% 15.5%
9/22/06 What has been happening since the May high has been the setup for the pain that statistically should still lie ahead. …we should be very skeptical of the long side. …I’m personally just not willing to take the risk of being long… 1.6% 4.7% 8.3% 16.5%
9/15/06 …we are seeing the setup for the pain. …I no longer trust this advance. -0.4% 3.7% 7.1% 15.1%
8/25/06 …the “Stock Market Barometer” is now sending its warnings of changing conditions. …caution is warranted. 1.2% 3.2% 8.6% 12.6%
8/11/06 …the Secondary Trend for the Industrials still remains bullish. 2.8% 3.7% 9.4% 11.4% +
8/4/06 …the “Summer Rally” is suspect and subject to failure. Caution is advised as the “Stock Market Barometer” is beginning to see stormy conditions. But for now, Dow theory tells us that the Secondary Trend is still bullish. -1.0% 2.6% 6.9% 13.6% +
7/28/06 …this rally will most likely be a failure. …the stage is being set for the pain. 0.1% 1.8% 8.1% 15.1%
7/21/06 …this advance should be a failure… 3.1% 4.6% 10.1% 19.5%
7/14/06 …the market is soon going to be facing some challenges. 0.3% 2.6% 9.2% 25.6%
7/7/06 This expansion of breadth is obviously a positive for the market…as the advance to retest the May highs continues. …If breadth begins to contract before the May highs can be bettered, then take warning… -2.3% 0.8% 6.7% 22.3%
6/30/06 …the intermediate-term is now in fact positive. -0.2% 0.1% 5.4% 20.5% +
6/9/06 …we are now in the window of opportunity in which an intermediate-term bounce can begin. This will probably coincide with the typical “Summer rally.” …this bounce should serve to retest the May highs… -0.1% 1.6% 3.3% 21.6% +
6/2/06 In the short-term, things have turned positive once again. …the time for the pain is drawing near. -2.8% -0.6% 1.2% 15.7%
5/26/06 …on a short term-basis, we have a low in place. -1.2% -3.2% 1.2% 20.0%
4/28/06 …things are once again positive for the market from a price perspective. …the health of the advance is poor and bulls should continue to dance close to the door. 1.2% -3.9% -3.6% 14.6% +
4/7/06 …this non-confirmation…is a serious warning. This is further evidence that the market is getting leaner and leaner… -0.8% 2.3% -2.3% 12.1% +
3/31/06 For now, the Secondary Trend remains positive. 0.0% 1.4% -1.7% 11.5% +
3/24/06 …deteriorating conditions are a sign of things to come, a change that is somewhere over the horizon. -0.6% -0.1% -4.4% 9.2% +
3/17/06 This deteriorating internal picture is simply unhealthy and it will ultimately end badly. In the meantime, the Secondary Trend remains positive and the great liquidity levitation act hangs on a while longer. -0.3% 0.0% -3.9% 9.7% +
3/10/06 …the Secondary Trend according to Dow theory remains bullish, while the Primary Trend remains bearish, and the Dow theory phasing continues to suggest that there is more downside on a larger scale yet to come. …this is, in fact. an opportunity for at least a correction, but perhaps a trend change. 2.0% 1.2% -1.8% 8.6%
3/3/06 The bottom line is that yes, the Secondary Trend is positive. But, with deteriorating internals this Secondary advance is obviously beginning to get just a bit tired. -0.4% 0.8% -0.1% 8.9% +
2/17/06 …there are…some intermediate-term lows due and from that corrective move down the summer rally should then begin. It is that summer rally that I currently see setting the stage for the “Pain.” So, basically the correction of this Secondary non-confirmation allows the rally separating Phase I from Phase II of the bear market to continue a while longer. In the meantime, there are indications that a shorter-term correction could be in the cards. 0.5% 0.8% -2.0% 12.7% +
2/3/06 …based on the current overall technical picture, it looks as if that will only set the stage for the summer rally. Then, as I look over the technical horizon a bit, it appears that when the summer rally begins to fizzle, the bear should return because the cyclical phasing for latter 2006 is not looking good. 0.2% 0.9% 3.8% 14.6%
1/27/06 …the caution flag is out. -1.5% -0.2% 2.0% 12.6% +
1/20/06 …the secondary trend remains bullish, which obviously is good news for the market. From a cyclical perspective, this is now changing. 1.8% 1.7% 4.0% 12.9%
1/13/06 …the Industrials are now clear to retest their old highs. -1.8% -0.9% 0.1% 11.1%
12/30/05 …the bottom line is that…this is definitely a warning for those who understand or respect the Dow theory. 3.4% 2.7% 3.7% 12.9%
12/9/05 …the averages…are shouting “be careful.” …the advance out of the Halloween lows may just turn out to be a trick or treat affair… 0.6% 2.8% 2.0% 12.2%
12/2/05 …another intermediate-term non-confirmation…is once again telling us, “be careful.” -0.5% 0.7% 1.0% 11.7% +
11/18/05 …the Secondary trend remains bullish. However, the recent non-confirmation between the Industrials and the Transports remains and this…is a reason for concern. 0.7% 0.9% 2.8% 12.6%
11/11/05 The fact that the Transports have now pushed to new highs, that have not been confirmed by the Industrials, is a warning, not a buy signal. …the “Secondary Trend” is currently bullish.  But, this non-confirmation is a serious warning that the Secondary Trend is in jeopardy. Also, think about this; the Primary Trend remains bearish and the Primary sell signal according to Dow theory still stands today. 1.1% 2.6% 2.3% 13.1%
10/21/05 …the averages are not considered to be “in gear.” Furthermore, when the averages are not “in gear,” their movements are not to be trusted… 1.6% 6.4% 7.1% 17.2%
10/14/05 …the Primary Trend remains bearish and the Secondary Trend remains bullish. Yet, on a very short-term basis the averages are not “in gear.” …there are stormy conditions ahead. It looks like a category 5 hurricane to me… -0.6% 4.0% 8.5% 15.1%
10/7/05 …the bag remains mixed and uncertain for both the bull and the bear in the short term. …from a longer term Dow theory perspective, the advance out of the 2002 low is merely a secondary reaction within the context of the ongoing bear market. …You have been warned, again! -0.8% 2.3% 7.5% 12.9%
9/30/05 Between the natural force of the market, high energy costs and rising interest rates, just to name a few, we are beginning to see signs of a coming slow-down just as the Dow theory has been telling us all along. -2.7% -1.8% 2.1% 9.9% +
9/16/05 …this secondary bullishness is on shaky ground…the rally out of the late August lows is weakening. -1.8% -3.9% 2.8% 7.0% +
9/9/05 Having the Secondary trend bullish simply means that the…(advance) out of the 2002 low separating Phase I from Phase II of this bear market has rejuvenated itself with the rally out of the June lows and is thereby still intact today according to Dow theory. …the Primary trend is indeed still bearish. -0.3% -4.4% 1.3% 6.2%
9/2/05 …the market still sits with a Primary Dow theory sell signal in place. …the masses never have and never will truly understand the Dow theory, because that takes time and energy to learn. …But, this still does not change the Barometer’s forecast. Please, listen to these warnings. 1.9% -0.3% 3.8% 6.2%
8/26/05 Whatever the extent of manipulation is today does not matter as it will fail and the natural forces of the market will prevail. Until the Stock Market Barometer’s forecast changes, the storm clouds continue to gather. 1.1% 0.9% 5.0% 8.2%
8/19/05 This is simply not a healthy environment for the market.  Perhaps “they” can hold it up again.  But, perhaps not. -1.2% 0.1% 0.9% 6.0% +
8/5/05 …once again the Industrials rebounded out of this false break and have since invalidated the “Secondary” sell signal and are re-testing the upper boundaries of this trading range. …I continue to warn you now that Phase II of the greatest bear show on earth is still ahead. 0.3% 0.6% -1.0% 3.2%
7/29/05 The decline into the Phase II low is still ahead… You have been warned, Again! -0.6% -1.8% -3.5% 3.6% +
7/15/05 …the most recent rally has occurred on poor internals and this is simply not a healthy environment for the market. This advance should lead to another failure and disappointment for the bulls. 0.5% 0.5% -4.1% 2.6% +
7/8/05 …the stock market barometer is forecasting stormy conditions and caution is advised. 1.3% 0.9% -1.3% 3.9%
6/17/05 The problem with this rally, which will separate Phase I from Phase II, is that it has given us a couple of false breaks and then recovered. And yes, it has gone on much longer than expected. But, none of this changes what it is. …the rally separating Phase I from Phase II is still a bear market rally. The result of which will conclude the same regardless of what public sentiment is, or what the Fed says or does. The Dow theory will once again prevail. Please, don’t make the mistake of not listening to the warnings that the Dow theory is so clearly giving.  -2.1% 1.0% 0.9% 2.9% +
5/27/05 …in spite of the flashy rally, which has occurred out of the April lows, nothing has really changed. Both the Transports and the Industrials remain in gear to the downside. …the stock market barometer continues to forecast stormy economic conditions. -0.1% 0.2% 1.1% 7.3%
5/6/05 …the Industrials and the Transports…[are] “in gear” to the down side. -1.5% 2.2% 5.5% 12.9% +
4/29/05 …the weakness in the Industrials, Transportation and the Retailers is serious. 1.3% 3.0% 7.5% 13.1%
4/22/05 Most believe that this great secondary reaction has been a new bull market. Nothing could be further from the truth according to Dow theory. The charts are telling us that the downturn into Phase II has likely begun and that this will be a global event. You have been warned, Again! 0.4% 3.6% 6.5% 13.3%
4/15/05 …the market is now on thin ice. 0.8% 2.0% 7.3% 14.6%
4/8/05 …from a Dow theory perspective the rally separating Phase I from Phase II remains intact. But, when I look at these other indexes there are indeed cracks beginning to appear that could well be telegraphing even broader market weakness in the weeks ahead. …extreme caution is warranted. -3.3% -0.2% 1.4% 8.9% +
3/18/05 All the while [the bear] has been setting the stage for Phase II of what could potentially be the greatest bear show on earth. Until we see these non-confirmations corrected, extreme caution is warranted. -1.3% -3.1% 1.8% 9.7% +
3/4/05 …this cyclical bull market has gone much further and lasted much longer than I or most any other bear has expected.  This has served to make the bears look like the little boy that cried wolf. …At one of these setups the bear will strike.  That I can almost assure you. …You have been warned, Again! -1.8% -3.3% -1.5% 4.6% +
2/25/05 The averages are screaming to those who understand and believe in the Dow theory. It is greed and lust to see the performance from the 1990’s that deafens people. 0.9% -3.8% -1.8% 6.6% +
2/18/05 …something is wrong…this is NOT a bull market. 0.2% -2.5% -0.9% 7.2% +
2/11/05 …what we have seen is an extended secondary reaction or counter trend rally. The problem is that this rally has been so great in both duration and magnitude that it has even most seasoned market analysts thinking that we are in a bull market. The problem is that very few people truly have an in depth understanding of the Dow theory, and without this understanding, it is impossible to comprehend just how large and perverse the current setup actually is. -0.3% -0.6% -3.8% 6.2% +
1/14/05 …since mid November the consumer has pulled back on his spending. This pull back is now beginning to show with the recent break in the Transports. …The next domino to watch is the Industrials. -1.8% 2.2% -3.5% 8.5% +
12/10/04 …it looks as if we are seeing an extended version of 1930. 0.5% -0.4% 1.0% 6.6%
11/19/04 …we now have to look at this market from a different angle.  Since March 2004 we have had to monitor the bear’s performance in relation to the March 10th sell signal. In doing so we were watching for signs of failure on behalf of the bear. …Finally, the bear failed… Now our job is to monitor the bull’s performance and watch for signs of failure on the bull’s behalf.  …but remember, this bullishness is still within the context of the higher level Dow theory Master sell signal and Primary Bear market. 0.7% 3.0% 2.7% 7.8% +
10/15/04 The consumer is beginning to pull back and as a result the Industrials are now beginning to feel the effect. The next domino that is likely to fall as a result of this trickle down effect will likely be the Transports. -1.1% 6.8% 6.2% 6.3% +
10/8/04 No [buy] signal occurred in May 2003. …The current state of the market is no doubt bearish and caution is advised. You have been warned, Again! -1.2% 3.8% 5.9% 5.6% +
10/1/04 In June 2003 the Industrials did move above its previous secondary reaction high point. This move was further confirmed by the Transports. Many have misinterpreted this as a Dow Theory buy signal. In reality this was a Dow Theory buy signal, but it was of secondary importance. In other words, it was a buy signal that is subordinate to the 1999/2000 “Master” sell signal. I believe that this is where many have misinterpreted the Dow Theory as currently being bullish. But, even this secondary buy signal was invalidated on March 10, 2004 when a secondary Dow Theory sell signal was triggered. Today we remain under both the “Master” sell signal as well as the secondary sell signal. According to the pure interpretation of Dow Theory, we do in fact remain under a sell signal. -0.8% -0.1% 7.3% 7.3%
9/24/04 We are in a bear market and until this changes most stock selection methods are also likely to perform poorly. The rally out of the October 2002 low into the February 2004 high is a giant bear market rally. This rally should separate Phase I of this Great Bear Market from Phase II. You have been warned, Again! 1.9% -1.4% 9.0% 9.5%
9/17/04 …the Fed cannot create endless prosperity…any efforts to manipulate the market only serve to postpone the inevitable… Presently, the averages are shouting “be careful.”  …You have been warned, Again! -1.6% -1.3% 6.8% 8.2%
9/10/04 The danger of the current market environment continues to mount. …this market is just as dangerous and maybe even more so than it was in 2000. …the Dow theory has spoken… You have been warned again! 0.4% 0.0% 5.2% 9.5%
8/13/04 The sad thing is that few truly realize or believe that we are actually in a bear market. …we also remain under a Dow theory sell signal… Phase II of this bear market is currently shaping up to be a global event. Please take heed of this warning. 3.2% 6.0% 9.2% 14.5%
7/23/04 …it does appear that the consumer is pulling back on spending… 1.4% 0.9% 1.6% 13.3%
7/2/04 Understand that the bear’s job is to keep as many bulls in as long as he can while also preventing the bears from recognizing the true dangers.  Make no mistake about it. This market is dangerous. -1.0% -2.3% -1.0% 6.2% +
6/11/04 The decline into March 2003 was only Phase I of the bear market.  …the rally, which began in March 2003, was indeed a Bear Market rally and specifically a rally that should prove to separate Phase I from Phase II of this great Bear Market. …[The] sell signal came on March 10, 2004. 0.4% -1.2% -0.1% 7.2%
6/4/04 …we are now at the inflection point. …the great bear market that most people think ended in 2003 is about to reemerge, and if so it could get very nasty in the not too distant future. 0.2% -0.4% -0.4% 6.4%
5/28/04 I see the behavior of both the advancing and declining issues as well as that of advancing and declining volume to be a warning that trouble likely lies ahead for the market. …If this isn’t a warning sign, I’ve never seen one. 1.8% 1.8% -1.2% 7.5%
5/21/04 …we are seeing a mass distribution of stock. …The technical picture is currently negative from many angles. …unless this changes soon we are very likely to have trouble just ahead. 2.5% 4.6% 0.4% 8.8%
5/14/04 …we are still very much operating under a Dow theory sell signal that was generated on March 10, 2004. …at this time we should simply be watching the Transports for reconfirmation of the Bear. …the current stock market weakness is WORLD WIDE… Unless the current technical picture quickly changes, the equity markets likely have serious problems just ahead. -0.2% 3.5% -2.8% 8.2%
4/30/04 This then turned the longer-term picture bearish. There are currently warnings in all of the above sectors that they too could follow. -0.8% 1.3% -0.5% 6.2% +
4/2/04 I have been pounding the table ever since the rally out of the March 2003 low began, that it was a bear market rally. 0.3% -1.9% -1.4% 4.3%
3/26/04 We now have to see what develops… 3.0% 2.7% 2.4% 6.5%
3/12/04 …please listen to these warnings. These patterns are speaking.  The problem is that because of the current levels of bullishness, few have the ears to hear or the eyes to see. -1.0% 0.8% 1.4% 6.0% +
3/5/04 …the trend and cyclical structure of the Industrials have remained positive ever since March ’03. -3.1% -0.5% -3.5% 4.3%
2/27/04 …it’s not just Tim Wood, Jim Puplava and a few others…who have been accused of just being perma bears. No, folks there are others who understand and see this market for what it is as well as what likely lies ahead. 1.0% -2.0% -2.6% 5.7%
2/20/04 …the DJIA has thus far continued to make higher and higher trading cycles lows since the rally out of the March 2003 low began and this bullish pattern remains in effect today. 0.1% -4.3% -4.8% 4.1%
2/13/04 Such a decline would also serve as additional confirmation that we are not likely to see the Dow theory non-confirmation corrected any time soon and we should then expect to see the Industrials follow the Transports downward. -0.4% -3.1% -4.3% 5.6% +
2/6/04 We are now in wait and see mode. 0.3% -0.2% -2.5% 4.3% +
1/30/04 …we are indeed due a correction which should carry the market down into the April time frame. …we are now seeing the first signs that this top could finally be at hand. If I’m correct, the decline that follows this top should prove to usher in the beginning of the second phase of this bear market. 1.0% 1.6% -1.5% 5.5%
1/23/04 I would not be long the market at this juncture. -0.9% -0.2% -0.1% 2.8% +
1/16/04 …I firmly believe that the rally out of the October 2002 low is nothing more than a very deceptive bear market rally just as described by the quotes above. This is not to say that the bearish case is cast in stone just yet. 1.4% 1.1% -0.5% 3.1%
1/9/04 …this rally is the all important rally that serves to separate the first phase of the bear market form the second phase…equivalent to the rally that was seen between November 1929 and April 1930. …the best way I can describe the market is that it is simply nuts! I urge you to please, exercise caution with the market. 1.6% 2.1% 1.6% 5.9%
12/26/03 Please do not be blinded by the Hope and Hype that this rally has generated. It is smoke and mirrors. 2.4% 3.0% 1.1% 10.7%
12/19/03 …this is a bear market rally…that will separate phase I of the bear market from phase II. This rally has now become quite speculative, mania of sorts.  This market is now simply Nuts! The correction is coming. 1.9% 5.1% 0.6% 11.2%
12/12/03 And thus the rule, supported by the experience of centuries:  the speculative episode always ends not with a whimper but with a bang.  There will be occasion to see the operation of this rule frequently repeated. 1.4% 5.2% 2.8% 12.0%
12/5/03 …papa bear is cooking up “something big.” 1.2% 6.1% 8.1% 12.0%
11/21/03 …we should expect to see a short term low in the market in the next few days. 3.4% 5.9% 10.0% 14.2%
11/14/03 This bear market rally is dying a slow death.  There is no doubt about that. …it will wear itself out… -1.4% 2.4% 10.2% 12.7% +
11/7/03 …I feel fairly confident in saying that we are still in the first primary phase of a monster bear market that is not likely to end until 2006 or possibly 2010. …the rally seen since the March 2003 low will likely prove to be the rally that separates the first bear market phase from the second one. -0.3% 0.7% 8.2% 11.4%
10/31/03 The bearish pattern that I have been monitoring is currently still on track. The many technical indicators follow as well as my cycles works also confirms that something big is in deed brewing. For these reasons I believe that we are now relatively close to seeing a wonderful opportunity on the short side of this market materialize. 0.2% 1.5% 8.0% 10.6%
10/24/03 …I currently have a contrary opinion on the market… 2.1% 2.3% 12.3% 9.6%
10/17/03 …this bear market rally is indeed about to run out of gas…this market advance continues to run on fumes. This cannot continue! -1.0% 0.4% 9.7% 6.5% +
10/10/03 …the rally off of the March low is a bear market rally. 0.1% 0.9% 8.1% 6.3%
10/3/03 Some analysts are calling the October 2002 low the 4-year cycle low.  At this time, I do not believe that we can make this call…we can then look for the bear to take the stock market to new lows as we move down into the seasonal decline for 2004. 0.8% 2.8% 7.6% 9.8%
9/26/03 …the decline into the seasonal low could now be under way. …the stock market from a long-term perspective remains bearish. …we are not very likely to see the bottom of this Bear market before 2008 and possibly as late as 2010. I say 2008 because that would be roughly 33% of the duration of the preceding Bull market. …my technical studies take the S&P 500 down to approximately 315 and the DJIA down to about 3,000. 3.3% 3.4% 9.7% 11.8%
9/19/03  The next big break should usher in the second phase of this great bear market. …this market has not been climbing the “Wall of Worry” which makes this rally very, very dangerous. -3.8% 0.8% 3.9% 7.0%
9/12/03 The market’s inability to hold above 9,504.64 has now turned [the 50%] principle bearish. …can the current seasonal cycle hold above 8,960.74 as we move into the coming seasonal cycle low? If not this could indeed prove to be troublesome for the market. 1.7% 2.6% 4.0% 10.3%
9/5/03 …a trading cycle low that is coming due in mid to late September. We should now be moving into this low. …By the same token, as long as the averages continue to confirm each other on the upside, all remains positive from this perspective. -0.3% 1.3% 4.2% 9.5% +
5/9/03 This estimated move would bring the S&P 500 down to around 315.  315 on the S&P 500 would equate to approximately 3,000 on the DJIA. …this bear market is NOT over and this forecast is highly probable. 1.2% 5.5% 4.4% 17.6%
4/30/03 These patterns are bearish patterns in and of themselves.  …this is not a good combination of events for the bulls. 1.4% 5.1% 7.9% 21.9%
4/4/03 …the evidence is strongly in favor of the bears. However, the bullish warnings above should be taken seriously.  There is always a first time for everything. Also, keep in mind that just because the odds suggest a given outcome, don’t forget that events do come to pass that defy the odds. It’s true that I have been expecting to see the October 2002 lows violated for sometime now and obviously it has not happened. -1.2% 6.3% 12.2% 29.8% +


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