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Investing Research Articles

84 Research Articles

Reversion of Stock Markets to Value Over the Long Run

Can investors count on stock markets reverting to some valuation benchmark? In their March 2010 paper entitled “Mean Reversion in International Stock Markets: An Empirical Analysis of the 20th Century”, Laura Spierdijk, Jaap Bikker and Pieter van den Hoek analyze reversion of 17 developed country stock market indexes to a valuation benchmark based on a… Keep Reading

3-Cycle Prediction Engine?

A reader commented and asked: “Ned Davis Research calculates a time cycle composite. How good is an equal weighting of the annual seasonal cycle, the Presidential term cycle and the decennial cycle at predicting the direction of the market?” To check, we forecast return for a given month by averaging: (1) the average return for… Keep Reading

Party Composition in Congress and Stock Returns

The U.S. Democratic and Republican political parties arguably exhibit persistently different policy inclinations that affect the aggregate performance of public companies and therefore the U.S. stock market. “Party in Power and Stock Returns” investigates annual stock returns for different combinations of the party in control of the the Presidency, the House of Representatives and the… Keep Reading

Weekly Summary of Research Findings: 1/8/24 – 1/12/24

Below is a weekly summary of our research findings for 1/8/24 through 1/12/24. These summaries give you a quick snapshot of our content the past week so that you can quickly decide what’s relevant to your investing needs. Subscribers: To receive these weekly digests via email, click here to sign up for our mailing list.