Objective research to aid investing decisions

Value Investing Strategy (Strategy Overview)

Allocations for June 2024 (Final)
Cash TLT LQD SPY

Momentum Investing Strategy (Strategy Overview)

Allocations for June 2024 (Final)
1st ETF 2nd ETF 3rd ETF
Filter Research

Investing Research Articles

3527 Research Articles

Weekly Summary of Research Findings: 6/10/24 – 6/14/24

Below is a weekly summary of our research findings for 6/10/24 through 6/14/24. These summaries give you a quick snapshot of our content the past week so that you can quickly decide what’s relevant to your investing needs. Subscribers: To receive these weekly digests via email, click here to sign up for our mailing list.

Tech Premium Boost for Simplest Asset Class Momentum Strategy?

In response to “Tech Equity Premium?”, a subscriber asked about substituting Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ) for SPDR S&P 500 (SPY) in the “Simplest Asset Class ETF Momentum Strategy?”, which each month holds SPY or iShares Barclays 20+ Year Treasury Bond (TLT) depending on which has the higher total return over the last three months. To investigate, we… Keep Reading

Are Low Volatility Stock ETFs Working?

Are low volatility stock strategies, as implemented by exchange-traded funds (ETF), attractive? To investigate, we consider eight of the largest low volatility ETFs, all currently available, in order of longest to shortest available histories: Invesco S&P 500 Low Volatility Portfolio (SPLV) – the 100 stocks from the S&P 500 Index with the lowest realized volatility over the… Keep Reading

Inflation Forecast Update

The Inflation Forecast now incorporates actual total and core Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for May 2024. The actual total (core) inflation rate is lower than (lower than) forecasted.

Rough Net Worth Growth Benchmarks

How fast should individuals plan to grow net worth as they age? To investigate, we examine median levels of household (1) total net worth and (2) net worth excluding home equity from several vintages of U.S. Census Bureau data. We make the following head-of-household age cohort assumptions: “Less than 35 years” means about age 30. “35 to… Keep Reading

Simple Debt Class Mutual Fund Momentum Strategy

A subscriber requested validation of the performance of a simple momentum strategy that each month selects the best performing debt mutual fund based on total return over the past three months. To investigate, we test a simple strategy on the following 14 mutual funds, most of which have long histories: T. Rowe Price New Income… Keep Reading

Tactical Signals from a Gold/Silver Ratio?

Can investors holding gold as inflation hedge/equity crash protection improve performance of this position by holding gold (silver) when the gold-to-silver ratio is relatively low (high)? To investigate, we track the ratio of SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) price to iShares Silver Trust (SLV) price and switch from GLD to SLV (SLV to GLD) when GLD… Keep Reading

Weekly Summary of Research Findings: 6/3/24 – 6/7/24

Below is a weekly summary of our research findings for 6/3/24 through 6/7/24. These summaries give you a quick snapshot of our content the past week so that you can quickly decide what’s relevant to your investing needs. Subscribers: To receive these weekly digests via email, click here to sign up for our mailing list.

AIs for Financial Statement Analysis?

Are large language models such as GPT-4 as effective as professional human analysts in interpreting numerical financial statements? In their May 2024 paper entitled “Financial Statement Analysis with Large Language Models”, Alex Kim, Maximilian Muhn and Valeri Nikolaev investigate whether GPT-4 can analyze standardized, anonymized financial statements to forecast direction and magnitude (large, moderate or… Keep Reading

Distinct and Predictable U.S. and ROW Equity Market Cycles?

A subscriber asked: “Some pundits have noted that U.S. stocks have greatly outperformed foreign stocks in recent years. What does the performance of U.S. stocks vs. foreign stocks over the last N years say about future performance?” To investigate, we use the S&P 500 Index (SP500) as a proxy for the U.S. stock market and… Keep Reading