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Investing Research Articles

3542 Research Articles

Triumph of the Optimists (Chapter-by-Chapter Review)

…21st-century investors should curb their exuberance.

Buffering Exuberance

…short selling is more effective at buffering exuberance for individual stocks than for the overall market.

Smart Mutual Fund Investing?

…mutual fund inflows naively chase past returns.

The Media: All Frenzy All the Time?

…the media constitute a possibly destabilizing element, since they support the continuation and reinforcement of states of disequilibrium, or maybe even trigger them.

The Importance of Animal Spirits?

…investor emotions drive market volatility, but there is an asymmetry to fear and greed.

Follow the Institutional Leaders?

…individual investors should be wary of investing in stocks that are the top mutual fund holdings.

Can the “Experts” Help You Beat the Market?

…portfolios built using aggregate analyst recommendations may produce gross outperformance, but transaction costs absorb excess returns. Moreover, privileged investors get the jump on analyst-driven trades.

50-Year Fed Model Meme?

…the Fed Model has worked pretty well starting about 1960, with interest rates since playing a key role in stock valuation.

One Up on the Fed Model?

In their June 2003 paper entitled “A General Theory of Stock Market Valuation and Return”, Christophe Faugere and Julian Van Erlach contend that past stock returns are overstated and develop a market valuation formula that out-fits the Fed Model. Specifically, they show that:

Earnings Yield-Interest Rate Spread

…the gap between the S&P 500 earnings yield and Treasury instrument yields has some market timing value, with short spreads outperforming long spreads.