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Investing Research Articles

3240 Research Articles

Test of Some Motley Fool Public Stock Picks

A reader asked: “I am wondering how come you have not rated Motley Fool guys. Any insight?” To augment the test of Motley Fool public stock picks in “‘Buy These Stocks for 2019’ Forward Test”, we look at two more lists of stock picks: “10 Top Stocks That Will Make You Richer in 2021” with… Keep Reading

Weekly Summary of Research Findings: 11/21/22 – 11/25/22

Below is a weekly summary of our research findings for 11/21/22 through 11/25/22. These summaries give you a quick snapshot of our content the past week so that you can quickly decide what’s relevant to your investing needs. Subscribers: To receive these weekly digests via email, click here to sign up for our mailing list.

Substituting IYH for SPY in SACEMS

Based on high return correlation with the S&P 500 Index and strong past performance of the health care sector, a subscriber suggested replacing SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) with iShares U.S. Healthcare ETF (IYH) in the Simple Asset Class ETF Momentum Strategy (SACEMS). To investigate, we compare performance statistics for SACEMS Top 1, equal-weighted… Keep Reading

Combining SMA10 and P/E10 Signals

In response to the U.S. stock market timing backtest in “Usefulness of P/E10 as Stock Market Return Predictor”, a subscriber suggested combining a 10-month simple moving average (SMA10) technical signal with a P/E10 (or Cyclically Adjusted Price-Earnings ratio, CAPE) fundamental signal. Specifically, we test: SMA10 – bullish/in stocks (bearish/in cash) when prior-month stock index level… Keep Reading

Sector Breadth as Market Return Indicator

Does breadth of equity sector performance predict overall stock market return? To investigate, we relate next-month stock market return to sector breadth (number of sectors with positive past returns) over lookback intervals ranging from 1 to 12 months. We consider the following nine sector exchange-traded funds (ETF) offered as Standard & Poor’s Depository Receipts (SPDR):… Keep Reading

Using One Third 3X Funds for Some SACEMS Assets

A subscriber suggested implementing several Simple Asset Class ETF Momentum Strategy (SACEMS) asset class proxies with allocations consisting of one third triple-leveraged (3X) versions of the proxies and two thirds cash, thereby accruing the targeted risk asset returns plus some return on cash. Specifically: Whenever SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) is a winner, implement… Keep Reading

Weekly Summary of Research Findings: 11/14/22 – 11/18/22

Below is a weekly summary of our research findings for 11/14/22 through 11/18/22. These summaries give you a quick snapshot of our content the past week so that you can quickly decide what’s relevant to your investing needs. Subscribers: To receive these weekly digests via email, click here to sign up for our mailing list.

Should Investors Care About “the Way Things Are Going”?

Are broad measures of public sociopolitical sentiment relevant to investors? Do they predict stock returns as indicators of exuberance and fear? To investigate, we relate S&P 500 Index return and 12-month trailing S&P 500 price-operating earnings ratio (P/E) to the percentage of respondents saying “yes” to the recurring Gallup polling question: “In general, are you… Keep Reading

How Are TIPS ETFs Doing?

How do exchange-traded-funds (ETF) focused on Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) perform? To investigate, we consider ten of the largest TIP ETFs, all currently available, as follows: iShares TIPS (TIP) Schwab U.S. TIPS (SCHP) Vanguard Short-Term Inflation-Protected Securities (VTIP) iShares 0-5 Year TIPS (STIP) SPDR Portfolio TIPS (SPIP) FlexShares iBoxx 3-Year Target Duration TIPS Index (TDTT)… Keep Reading

SACEMS with Different Alternatives for “Cash”

Do alternative “Cash” (deemed risk-free) instruments materially affect performance of the “Simple Asset Class ETF Momentum Strategy” (SACEMS)? Changing the proxy for Cash can affect how often the model selects Cash, as well as the return on Cash when selected. To investigate, we test separately each of the following yield and exchange-traded funds (ETF) as the… Keep Reading