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Investing Research Articles

3656 Research Articles

Academic Studies vs. Practitioner Experiences with Equity Factors

Can fund managers, and thereby individual investors, reliably exploit academic research on equity factors? In his January 2025 paper entitled “Do Factor Strategies Beat the Market?”, Edward McQuarrie reviews differences between the results of academic factor studies and fund manager/investor experience, with focus on the size effect (small stocks outperform) and the value premium (value… Keep Reading

Innumeracy and Look-ahead Bias in LLMs?

Recent research in accounting and finance finds that large language models (LLM) beat humans on a variety of related tasks, but the black box nature of LLMs obscures why. Is LLM outperformance real? In his December 2024 paper entitled “Caution Ahead: Numerical Reasoning and Look-ahead Bias in AI Models”, Bradford Levy conducts a series of… Keep Reading

Meta AI Stock Picking Backtest

Do annual stock picks from the Meta AI large language model beat the market? To investigate, we ask Meta AI to pick the top 10 stocks for each of 2020-2024 based on information available only before each year. For example, we ask Meta AI to pick stocks for 2020 as follows: “Limiting yourself strictly to… Keep Reading

SACEMS, SACEVS and Trading Calendar Updates

We have updated monthly allocations and performance data for the Simple Asset Class ETF Momentum Strategy (SACEMS) and the Simple Asset Class ETF Value Strategy (SACEVS). We have also updated performance data for the Combined Value-Momentum Strategy. We have updated the Trading Calendar to incorporate data for January 2025.

Weekly Summary of Research Findings: 1/27/25 – 1/31/25

Below is a weekly summary of our research findings for 1/27/25 through 1/31/25. These summaries give you a quick snapshot of our content the past week so that you can quickly decide what’s relevant to your investing needs. Subscribers: To receive these weekly digests via email, click here to sign up for our mailing list.

Preliminary SACEMS and SACEVS Allocation Updates

The home page, Simple Asset Class ETF Momentum Strategy (SACEMS) and Simple Asset Class ETF Value Strategy (SACEVS) now show preliminary positions for February 2025. Some SACEMS rankings are close and could change by the close. SACEVS allocations are unlikely to change by the early close.

ChatGPT Stock Picking Backtest

Do annual stock picks from the ChatGPT large language model beat the market? To investigate, we ask ChatGPT to pick the top 10 stocks for each of 2020-2024 based on information available only before each year. For example, we ask ChatGPT to pick stocks for 2020 as follows: “Limiting yourself strictly to information that was… Keep Reading

Mitigating Look-ahead Bias in Forecasting with LLMs

How can researchers ensure that large language models (LLM), when tasked with time series forecasting, do not inject look-ahead bias and thereby inflate measured predictive power? In his brief November 2024 paper entitled “Look-Ahead Bias in Large Language Models (LLMs): Implications and Applications in Finance”, Miquel Noguer I Alonso addresses sources of LLM look-ahead bias… Keep Reading

Test of Some Motley Fool Public Stock Picks

A reader asked: “I am wondering how come you have not rated Motley Fool guys. Any insight?” To augment the test of Motley Fool public stock picks in “‘Buy These Stocks for 2019’ Forward Test”, we evaluate stock picks for 2021, 2022, 2023 and 2024 via “10 Top Stocks That Will Make You Richer in 2021”, “7… Keep Reading

How Are Robotics-AI ETFs Doing?

How do exchange-traded-funds (ETF) focused on development of robotics-artificial intelligence (AI), an arguably hot area of technology, perform? To investigate, we consider eight of the largest such ETFs, all currently available, as follows: Robo Global Robotics and Automation Index ETF (ROBO) ARK Autonomous Technology & Robotics ETF (ARKQ) Global X Robotics & Artificial Intelligence ETF (BOTZ) First Trust… Keep Reading