Investing Research Articles

…there is solid evidence that stock returns have a predictable component, captured at least partially by interest rate variables, across international markets.

Martin Goldberg sent a comment on our review of his stock market commentaries (“Martin Goldberg: Financial Sense?”). The following exchange presents Mr. Goldberg’s message without editing.

…mutual fund investors can enhance odds of beating passive benchmarks by focusing on funds with expense ratios that are among the lowest within category.

…pricing of out-of-the-money put options for the S&P 500 index indicates that investors expect 50% stock market crashes every 50 years.

…observations have implications for investing and trading from the perspectives of avoiding irrationality as individuals and exploiting the systematic irrationalities of others.

…low (high) investor sentiment is especially indicative of future outperformance (underperformance) by the most speculative stocks.

Industries arguably follow multi-month cycles of outperformance and underperformance. Can investors use industry/sector Exchange Traded Funds (ETF) to capture abnormal returns from industry momentum? In their June 2008 paper entitled “Can Exchange Traded Funds Be Used to Exploit Industry Momentum?”, Laurens Swinkels and Liam Tjong-A-Tjoe analyze the profitability of industry momentum strategies based on two… Keep Reading

…evidence from a small sample does not support a belief that ValueEngine’s market overview statistics meaningfully predict near-term behavior of the broad stock market.

…the media employs mostly sentimental shortcuts in assessing company performance, and the sentiments expressed are much more reflective of past trends than future performance.

…the reactions of aggregated commodity futures prices to surprises in macroeconomic indicators (up and down with inflation and real activity) are most reliable during recessions.