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Review of the Golden Butterfly Portfolio

Steve LeCompte | | Posted in: Strategic Allocation

Guide Asset Allocation and Portfolios Fixed and lazy portfolios

Key Insight

Golden Butterfly (equal-weight VTI/IJS/TLT/SHY/GLD; monthly or annual rebalancing) had markedly lower CAGR than VTI and GLD but a fairly shallow maximum drawdown (ETFs Nov 2004–Jan 2026; gross of trading costs; mutual-fund proxies from Apr 1992).

A subscriber requested review of the Golden Butterfly (GB) portfolio, which assigns equal weights to the total stock market, small-capitalization value stocks, long-term government bonds, short-term government bonds and gold. To investigate, we use the following exchange-traded funds (ETF) as asset class proxies, respectively:

  • Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund (VTI)
  • iShares S&P Small-Cap 600 Value Fund (IJS)
  • iShares Barclays 20+ Year Treasury Bond (TLT)
  • iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond (SHY)
  • SPDR Gold Shares (GLD)

We consider either monthly or annual rebalancings to equal weight, ignoring associated trading frictions. Using monthly dividend-adjusted prices for the five ETFs during November 2004 (limited by GLD) through January 2026, we find that:

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Asset Allocation and Portfolios guide

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