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Federal Reserve Treasuries Holdings and Asset Returns

August 23, 2018 • Posted in Bonds, Economic Indicators, Equity Premium

Is the level, or changes in the level, of Federal Reserve (Fed) holdings of U.S. Treasuries (measured weekly as of Wednesday) an indicator of future stock market and/or Treasuries returns? To investigate, we take dividend-adjusted SPDR S&P 500 (SPY) and iShares Barclays 20+ Year Treasury Bond (TLT) as tradable proxies for the U.S. stock and Treasuries markets, respectively. Using weekly Fed holdings of Treasuries, SPY and TLT during mid-December 2002 through early August 2018, we find that: (more…)

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