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U.S. Dollar Seasonal Strength/Weakness and Stock Market Returns

October 7, 2021 • Posted in Currency Trading, Equity Premium

A subscriber asked whether currency exchange rates exhibit reliable seasonality that may be used to time equities (with a stronger currency implying lower asset prices). To investigate, we look for reliable calendar month effects for the U.S. dollar (USD)-euro exchange rate and for Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund (UUP). We further look at how monthly returns for these variables relate to those for SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) as a proxy for the U.S. stock market. Using monthly data for the USD-euro exchange rate since January 1999 and for UUP since March 2007 and corresponding data for SPY, all through August 2021, we find that: (more…)

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