How strongly do profits concentrate among winners in zero-sum prediction market trading? In their March 2026 paper entitled "Who Wins and Who Loses In Prediction Markets? Evidence from Polymarket", Pat Akey, Vincent Grégoire, Nicolas Harvie and Charles Martineau examine trading profits and losses on Polymarket, the world's largest prediction market, to measure:
- Profit concentration.
- The link between prediction accuracy and profitability.
- Characteristics of profitable and unprofitable trading.
Using the complete Polymarket transaction history (about 70 million trades by 1.4 million users) during November 2022 through October 2025, they find that:
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