Most researchers use classical statistical testing, with a t-statistic of 2.0 as the significance threshold for accepting an hypothesis. However, this threshold is valid only if the associated p-value derives from a single test. There are hundreds of published factor tests and an unknown number of unpublished tests. How far should researchers raise the significance… Keep Reading

How sensitive are multi-class asset allocation strategies to variations in backtesting choices? In their December 2025 paper entitled “The Multiverse Across Asset Classes: Design Uncertainty in Asset Allocations”, Arnaud Battistella, Jean-Charles Bertrand, Guillaume Coqueret and Nicholas McLoughlin explore net annualized Sharpe ratio sensitivities of asset class allocation methods with respect to five backtest design choices:… Keep Reading

Is Bitcoin a scarce, valuable asset or a Ponzi scheme? In his December 2025 paper entitled “The Great Bitcoin Debate: Saylor’s Maximalism Versus Schiff’s Monetary Traditionalism”, David Krause examines the debate between Bitcoin maximalists (represented by Michael Saylor) and traditional monetary economists (represented by Peter Schiff), encapsulated as follows: Saylor: Bitcoin’s fixed supply of 21… Keep Reading

“Dominant U.S. Stock Market?” summarizes a paper that (1) examines whether a 60%+ allocation to the U.S. in the MSCI All Country World Index (ACWI) is crazy high and (2) decides maybe not. In “How Much Is Too Much? Part 2: Why 60% in US Equities Might Be Just as Crazy as It Sounds”, the… Keep Reading

Below is a weekly summary of our research findings for 12/29/25 through 1/2/26. These summaries give you a quick snapshot of our content the past week so that you can quickly decide what’s relevant to your investing needs. Subscribers: To receive these weekly digests via email, click here to sign up for our mailing list.

As of November 2025, the MSCI All Country World Index (ACWI) allocates about 65% to U.S. stocks. Is this allocation to a single country crazy high? In the November 2025 revision of their brief paper entitled “How Much Is Too Much? Part 1: Why 60% in US Equities Isn’t as Crazy as It Might Sound”,… Keep Reading

We have updated monthly allocations and performance data for the Simple Asset Class ETF Momentum Strategy (SACEMS) and the Simple Asset Class ETF Value Strategy (SACEVS). We have also updated performance data for the Combined Value-Momentum Strategy. We have updated the Trading Calendar to incorporate data for December 2025.

The home page, Simple Asset Class ETF Momentum Strategy (SACEMS) and Simple Asset Class ETF Value Strategy (SACEVS) now show preliminary positions for January 2026. SACEMS rankings are very close for ranks 2. 3 and 4, which could change by the close. SACEVS allocations are unlikely to change by the close.

Can investors holding gold as inflation hedge/equity crash protection improve performance of this position by holding gold (silver) when the gold-to-silver ratio is relatively low (high)? To investigate, we track the ratio of SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) price to iShares Silver Trust (SLV) price and switch from GLD to SLV (SLV to GLD) when GLD… Keep Reading

What criteria do individual investors use when deciding which stocks to acquire? In their December 2025 paper entitled “How Investors Pick Stocks: Global Evidence from 1,540 AI-Driven Field Interviews”, Byoung-Hyoun Hwang, Don Noh and Sean Seunghun Shin report the results of 1,540 interviews moderated by artificial intelligence (AI) with actual investors across 10 countries about… Keep Reading