Investing Research Articles

Do annual stock picks from the ChatGPT large language model beat the market? To investigate, we ask ChatGPT to pick the top 10 stocks for each of 2020-2024 based on information available only before each year. For example, we ask ChatGPT to pick stocks for 2020 as follows: “Limiting yourself strictly to information that was… Keep Reading

How can researchers ensure that large language models (LLM), when tasked with time series forecasting, do not inject look-ahead bias and thereby inflate measured predictive power? In his brief November 2024 paper entitled “Look-Ahead Bias in Large Language Models (LLMs): Implications and Applications in Finance”, Miquel Noguer I Alonso addresses sources of LLM look-ahead bias… Keep Reading

A reader asked: “I am wondering how come you have not rated Motley Fool guys. Any insight?” To augment the test of Motley Fool public stock picks in “‘Buy These Stocks for 2019’ Forward Test”, we evaluate stock picks for 2021, 2022, 2023 and 2024 via “10 Top Stocks That Will Make You Richer in 2021”, “7… Keep Reading

How do exchange-traded-funds (ETF) focused on development of robotics-artificial intelligence (AI), an arguably hot area of technology, perform? To investigate, we consider eight of the largest such ETFs, all currently available, as follows: Robo Global Robotics and Automation Index ETF (ROBO) ARK Autonomous Technology & Robotics ETF (ARKQ) Global X Robotics & Artificial Intelligence ETF (BOTZ) First Trust… Keep Reading

Does commercial and industrial (C&I) credit fuel business growth and thereby drive the stock market? To investigate, we relate changes in credit standards from the Federal Reserve Board’s quarterly Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey on Bank Lending Practices to future U.S. stock market returns. Presumably, loosening (tightening) of credit standards is good (bad) for stocks. The… Keep Reading

Below is a weekly summary of our research findings for 1/21/25 through 1/24/25. These summaries give you a quick snapshot of our content the past week so that you can quickly decide what’s relevant to your investing needs. Subscribers: To receive these weekly digests via email, click here to sign up for our mailing list.

Do “great stock picks” from Forbes beat the market? To investigate, we evaluate stock picks for 2022, 2023 and 2024 via  “10 Great Stock Picks for 2022 from Top-Performing Fund Managers”, “20 Great Stock Ideas for 2023 from Top-Performing Fund Managers” and “10 Best Stocks For 2024”. For each year and each stock, we compute… Keep Reading

A subscriber requested a test of Ray Dalio‘s All Weather (AW) portfolio with different rebalancing frequencies, allocated to exchange-traded funds (ETF) as asset class proxies as follows: 30% – Vanguard Total Stock Market (VTI) 40% – iShares 20+ Year Treasury (TLT) 15% – iShares 7-10 Year Treasury (IEF) 7.5% – SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) 7.5% –… Keep Reading

Generative large language models (LLM), such as ChatGPT, are best known for conversational summation of complex information. Their use in financial forecasting focuses on discrete news sentiment signals of positive (1), neutral (0) or negative (-1). Is there a way to extract more granularity in LLM sentiment estimates? In their October 2024 paper entitled “Cut… Keep Reading

Past research relating U.S. stock market returns to the party holding the Presidency mostly concludes that Democratic presidents are better for the stock market than Republican presidents. However, Presidents share power conferred by the electorate with Congress. Does historical data confirm that Democratic control of Congress is also better for stock market returns than Republican… Keep Reading