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Investing Research Articles

3495 Research Articles

Optimal SACEMS Lookback Interval Update

How sensitive is performance of the “Simple Asset Class ETF Momentum Strategy” (SACEMS) to choice of momentum calculation lookback interval, and what interval works best? To investigate, we generate gross compound annual growth rates (CAGR) and maximum drawdowns (MaxDD) for SACEMS Top 1, equally weighted (EW) EW Top 2 and EW Top 3 portfolios over lookback… Keep Reading

A Few Notes on The Missing Billionaires

In their 2023 book, The Missing Billionaires: A Guide to Better Financial Decisions, authors Victor Haghani and James White seek “to give you a practical framework, consistent with the consensus of university finance textbooks, for making good financial decisions that are right for you. Good decisions will take account of your personal circumstances, financial preferences,… Keep Reading

Distance Between Fast and Slow Price SMAs and Stock Returns

Does degree of difference between fast and slow simple moving averages (SMA) for a stock price series predict future stock return? In the December 2023 revision of their paper entitled “Moving Average Distance as a Predictor of Equity Returns”, Doron Avramov, Guy Kaplanski and Avanidhar Subrahmanyam test distance between a 21-day SMA (SMA21) and 200-day… Keep Reading

Amplifying Short-term Reversal via Stocks with High Recent Returns

Are return reversals especially strong for lottery stocks? In their October 2023 paper entitled “Maxing Out Short-term Reversals in Weekly Stock Returns”, Chen Chen, Andrew Cohen, Qiqi Liang and Licheng Sun investigate return reversals for lottery stocks, those with high recent maximum daily returns (MAX). Specifically, for their main calculations, they each week: For each… Keep Reading

Weekly Summary of Research Findings: 12/18/23 – 12/22/23

Below is a weekly summary of our research findings for 12/18/23 through 12/22/23. These summaries give you a quick snapshot of our content the past week so that you can quickly decide what’s relevant to your investing needs. Subscribers: To receive these weekly digests via email, click here to sign up for our mailing list.

Stock Returns Around New Year’s Day

Does the New Year’s Day holiday, a time of replanning and income tax positioning, systematically affect investors in a way that translates into U.S. stock market returns? To investigate, we analyze the historical behavior of the S&P 500 Index during the five trading days before and the five trading days after the holiday. Using daily… Keep Reading

Review of the Quantified Market Psychology Strategy

At the suggestion of one of his subscribers, Willi Bambach requested independent review of his 1g QMP [Quantified Market Psychology] strategy, tracked since December 2007 on TimerTrac. To facilitate a review, he provided a brief description of the strategy and a medallion (https://timertrac.com/private/medallion.asp?mlid={CDD4AEE6-2A1D-4917-A571-DF23C884D1D3}) to enable public access to the strategy on TimerTrac (very slow to… Keep Reading

0DTE Strategy Outcomes

Are Zero-Days-to-Expiration (0DTE) options attractive trading vehicles? In his November 2023 paper entitled “0DTE Trading Rules”, Grigory Vilkov surveys outcomes for popular strategies that each day take unhedged positions in cash-settled 0DTE options on the S&P500 Index and hold to expiration. He considers simple trading rules that open positions at a fixed time (10:00 in… Keep Reading

Effects of Market Volatility on Market Trend Strategies

Does market volatility predictably affect returns to simple moving average (SMA) trend-following strategies? In their November 2023 paper entitled “Market Volatility and the Trend Factor”, Ming Gu, Minxing Sun, Zhitao Xiong and Weike Xu investigate how stock market volatility affects multi-SMA trend factor profitability. They first assess significance of the trend factor premium, as follows:… Keep Reading

Stock Returns Around Christmas

Does the Christmas holiday, a time of putative good will toward all, give U.S. stock investors a sense of optimism that translates into stock returns? To investigate, we analyze the historical behavior of the S&P 500 Index during five trading days before through five trading days after the holiday. Using daily closing levels of the… Keep Reading