Investing Research Articles

Can large language models (LLM) be trusted for economic/financial forecasts during periods within their training data? In their April 2025 paper entitled “The Memorization Problem: Can We Trust LLMs’ Economic Forecasts?”, Alejandro Lopez-Lira, Yuehua Tang and Mingyin Zhu evaluate use of  ChatGPT 4o (knowledge cutoff October 2023) for economic/financial forecasting via: Forecasts of variables before… Keep Reading

Should investors expect a negative correlation between stock market and bond market returns? In his February 2025 paper entitled “Rethinking the Stock-Bond Correlation”, Thierry Roncalli examines the stocks-bond return correlation from theoretical and empirical perspectives, employing a 4-year rolling window of monthly returns for the latter. Using both long-term and recent returns, he finds that:

Should stock return model complexity guide breadth of input data? In their May 2025 paper entitled “Model Complexity and the Performance of Global Versus Regional Models”, Minghui Chen, Matthias Hanauer and Tobias Kalsbach assess the predictive performance of global versus regional inputs for stock return models based on linear and machine learnings algorithms: ordinary least… Keep Reading

How has “A Quantitative Approach to Tactical Asset Allocation”, authored by Meb Faber in 2006 and published in The Journal of Wealth Management in 2007, performed post-publication? In his April 2025 paper entitled “Global Tactical Asset Allocation Updated Results and Real-Market Implementation Using Python and IBKR”, Carlo Zarattini revisits this influential strategy, which at the end… Keep Reading

Can investors exploit analyst stock price targets by finding the best analysts and overweighting the most extreme target-implied returns? In their March 2025 paper entitled “Alpha in Analysts”, Álvaro Cartea and Qi Jin test the informativeness and exploitability of sell-side analyst stock price targets. To test informativeness of target prices, they each month for each… Keep Reading

Below is a weekly summary of our research findings for 5/27/25 through 5/30/25. These summaries give you a quick snapshot of our content the past week so that you can quickly decide what’s relevant to your investing needs. Subscribers: To receive these weekly digests via email, click here to sign up for our mailing list.

Is systematically selling covered call options on equity indexes, as implemented by exchange-traded funds (ETF), attractive? To investigate, we consider five equity covered call ETFs: Invesco S&P 500 BuyWrite (PBP) – seeks to track the CBOE S&P 500 BuyWrite Index (BXM). Global X S&P 500 Covered Call (XYLD) – seeks to track BXM. Global X NASDAQ 100… Keep Reading

Is trend-following generally an attractive strategy for crypto-assets? In their April 2025 paper entitled “Catching Crypto Trends; A Tactical Approach for Bitcoin and Altcoins”, Carlo Zarattini, Alberto Pagani and Andrea Barbon test a long-only trend-following strategy on Bitcoin. They then extend the strategy to all cryptocurrencies listed for at least one year since 2015 with… Keep Reading

A subscriber asked for an update of the performance comparison between 50% Simple Asset Class ETF Value Strategy (SACEVS) Best Value-50% Simple Asset Class ETF Momentum Strategy (SACEMS) equal-weighted top two (EW Top 2), rebalanced monthly (SACEVS-SACEMS 50-50), and a strategy that is each week in stocks or bonds according to whether the return on… Keep Reading

How and how much does the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC) affect the overall stock market? In their April 2025 paper entitled “The Effect of the Federal Reserve on the Stock Market: Magnitudes, Channels and Shocks”, Benjamin Knox and Annette Vissing-Jorgensen survey studies of Federal Reserve effects on the stock market, focusing on three… Keep Reading