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3503 Research Articles

Alternative Out-of-sample Money Anxiety Index Tests

“Using the Money Anxiety Index for ETF Selection” examines whether the proprietary Money Anxiety Index (MAI) can select long and short portfolios of ETFs that beat the S&P 500 Index (ignoring dividends). Test outputs are 5-year, 3-year and 1-year cumulative returns. A deeper look at performance may be helpful. We extend the test period by… Keep Reading

Using the Money Anxiety Index for ETF Selection

Does anxiety about having enough money play an important role in asset selection decisions, and thereby asset returns? In his March 2024 paper entitled “Money Anxiety Theory – a Predictor of Equity’s Performance”, Dan Geller tests the ability of his proprietary Money Anxiety Index (MAI) to identify long and short portfolios of ETFs that beat… Keep Reading

Stock Market Performance Perspectives

How different are stock market performance metrics for: Capital gains only, capital gains plus dividends accrued as cash (spent or saved), and capital gains plus dividends reinvested in the stock market? Nominal versus real returns? Simple return-to-risk calculations versus Sharpe ratio? Using quarterly S&P 500 Index levels and dividends, quarterly U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) data (all… Keep Reading

Stock Market and the National Election Cycle

Some stock market experts cite the year (1, 2, 3 or 4) of the U.S. presidential term cycle as a useful indicator of U.S. stock market returns. Game theory suggests that presidents deliver bad news immediately after being elected and do everything in their power to create good news just before ensuing biennial elections. Are… Keep Reading

Interactions of Stock Mispricing and News Sentiment

What happens to mispriced stocks when associated firms issue positive or negative news? In their February 2024 paper entitled “Beauty Contests and Higher Order Beliefs: Evidence from News Releases”, Tarun Chordia, Bin Miao and Joonki Noh examine interactions of stock mispricing and news release sentiment. They consider 11 mispricing signals to identify overpriced and underpriced… Keep Reading

Weekly Summary of Research Findings: 3/11/24 – 3/15/24

Below is a weekly summary of our research findings for 3/11/24 through 3/15/24. These summaries give you a quick snapshot of our content the past week so that you can quickly decide what’s relevant to your investing needs. Subscribers: To receive these weekly digests via email, click here to sign up for our mailing list.

Limited Rebalancing for SACEMS?

A subscriber observed that backtesting of momentum-based trading systems typically assumes perfect rebalancing each month whether or not they select new assets. Would delaying rebalancing until new assets are selected improve strategy performance? To investigate, we compare the following two versions of the Simple Asset Class ETF Momentum Strategy (SACEMS) equal-weighted (EW) Top 2 portfolio:… Keep Reading

Update on Real Earnings Yield and Future Stock Market Returns

Prior to 2015, we tracked performance of an equity market timing model based on real earnings yield (REY). The Simple Asset Class ETF Value Strategy (SACEVS) subsumed that model in 2015. Earnings yield is aggregate corporate earnings divided by corresponding stock index level. The REY model adjusts this earnings yield by subtracting the inflation rate… Keep Reading

Horse Race: SSO or QQQ vice SPY in SACEVS and SACEMS?

Referring to “Substitute QQQ for SPY in SACEVS and SACEMS?” and “Conditionally Substitute SSO for SPY in SACEVS and SACEMS?”, a subscriber requested a horse race for boosting the performance of the Simple Asset Class ETF Value Strategy (SACEVS) and the Simple Asset Class ETF Momentum Strategy (SACEMS), and thereby the Combined Value-Momentum Strategy (SACEVS-SACEMS), based on substituting: ProShares Ultra… Keep Reading

Compendium of Live ETF Factor/Niche Premium Capture Tests

Some exchange-traded funds (ETF) focus on capturing potentially attractive factor premiums or thematic niches. Their histories offer a way to test these concepts live. We have conducted many such tests, listed here to offer a global view. “U.S. Equity Premium?” – evidence from simple tests on about 21 years of data suggests that stock market… Keep Reading