Investing Research Articles

…when experts cite overall stock market volatility as an indicator of future market behavior, they are only half right, which is about the same as wrong.

In his article entitled “The Seer-Sucker Theory: The Value of Experts in Forecasting” from the June/July 1980 issue of Technology Review, Scott Armstrong investigates the general supply of and demand for expertise across several disciplines. Based upon his survey of decades of research in multiple fields (including financial markets, psychology, health care, politics, sports), he… Keep Reading

…political forecasting seems a lot like financial markets forecasting, with slim evidence that the forecasters can beat simple algorithms.

Guru Grades ranks a group of 29 stock market experts according to our assessments of the accuracy of their stock market forecasts. Since Ken Fisher, CEO of Fisher Investments, has been at or near the top of the list since inception, we asked him to encapsulate his thinking on anticipating financial markets. He graciously agreed…. Keep Reading

…the trend in FTDs for NFI indicates substantial defiance of the intent of Regulation SHO, and this defiance is depressing the price of NFI stock. New FTDs most likely come from short sales three trading days in the past, implying that those most responsible for creating the FTDs are not market makers.

…geographical and corporate spans suggest that at least some message boards suggest both independence and diversity. There is not enough information in IP sourcing to infer the presence of valuable private information.

…industry focus (depth) and general diligence (timeliness) produce superior analysis.

…the aggregate market timing ability, positive performance persistence and stock picking ability of investment newsletters are unimpressive.

…the Morningstar mutual fund rating system offers value to investors seeking funds for outperformance over the next few years.

Might the relative sizes of the gaps between analyst target and actual prices indicate degrees of current misvaluation? In other words, is a stock with analyst target price twice its current price a better buy than a stock presently at or near its target price? In their February 2006 paper entitled “Target Prices, Relative Valuations… Keep Reading