Investing Research Articles

…investors/traders who check investment performance frequently should make mental adjustments for pain-avoidance bias.

…investors should focus on return on investment as the driver of investment returns and earnings yield as the indicator of how large the returns should be.

…investors/traders generally underreact to the sentiment expressed by executives in company annual reports.

Our Guru Grades section ranks a group of 29 stock market experts according to our assessments of the accuracy of their stock market forecasts. Since Jack Schannep has been in the upper tier of the list since inception, we asked him to encapsulate his thinking on market timing as a guest entry for this blog…. Keep Reading

…investors in large capitalization stocks are likely accepting a worldwide equity premium. Local (and identifiable) pockets of reward-for-risk involve small capitalization stocks.

…both the long-term and short-term behaviors of the VIX appear to have some value as an indicator of future stock returns, especially for high-beta stocks.

…when experts cite overall stock market volatility as an indicator of future market behavior, they are only half right, which is about the same as wrong.

In his article entitled “The Seer-Sucker Theory: The Value of Experts in Forecasting” from the June/July 1980 issue of Technology Review, Scott Armstrong investigates the general supply of and demand for expertise across several disciplines. Based upon his survey of decades of research in multiple fields (including financial markets, psychology, health care, politics, sports), he… Keep Reading

…political forecasting seems a lot like financial markets forecasting, with slim evidence that the forecasters can beat simple algorithms.

Guru Grades ranks a group of 29 stock market experts according to our assessments of the accuracy of their stock market forecasts. Since Ken Fisher, CEO of Fisher Investments, has been at or near the top of the list since inception, we asked him to encapsulate his thinking on anticipating financial markets. He graciously agreed…. Keep Reading