Investing Research Articles

Via the semiannual Livingston Survey, the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia solicits forecasts for the S&P 500 index (and many other U.S. economic measures) from economists in industry, government, banking and academia. How good are their forecasts? In his June 2007 paper entitled “Predicting Stock Price Movements: Regressions versus Economists”, Paul Soderlind examines the aggregate… Keep Reading

…the persistent and robust multi-year reversal of returns observed among UK stocks supports the view that investors overreact to price trends of the past few years, driving good (poor) performers too high (low).

…because the most informed players have the latitude to delay showing their hands during business expansions, the power of widely used indicators of future stock returns emerges predominantly during recessions.

…a dynamic and flexible model of long-term equity returns that accommodates structural breaks improves predictive power, at the cost of considerable complexity.

…a strategy of systematically selling index put options generates on average large abnormal returns but suffers occasional very large setbacks when the underlying index plunges.

As suggested by a reader, we evaluate here the market commentary of David Nassar via MarketWatch for November 2004 through May 2006. David Nassar is the chairman and chief executive of MarketWise.com, “a company built by traders and investors offering quality university level education with enduring benefits.” Their mission is “to support traders and investors… Keep Reading

…investors may systematically undervalue the stocks of the most admired companies.

…the stock market after a bad week (month) exhibits neither momentum nor reversal reliably the following week (month).

…put-call option ratios as defined have significant predictive power for individual stocks, with high (low) ratios indicating short-term underperformance (outperformance). However, this effect relates predominately to data that is not publicly available. Also, the effect does not work for index options.

…investors/traders appear not to consider recent inflation rate trend or volatility in deciding whether to buy or sell stocks.