Simple Test of MACD Crossover as an Abnormal Returns Indicator
March 4, 2008 - Technical Trading
Here is a simple test of the Moving Average Convergence/Divergence (MACD), as calculated using the Exponential Moving Average (EMA) template at StockCharts.com, on a tradable proxy for the S&P 500 index. MACD is the difference between the 26-day EMA price and the 12-day EMA price for an asset. A bullish (bearish) crossover occurs when MACD moves above (below) its 9-day EMA. To reduce the number of very short-term MACD trades, we filter out “close calls” by requiring MACD to reach a level 25% above or below its 9-day EMA before triggering a trade. Using daily dividend-adjusted closing prices for the S&P Depository Receipts Trust (SPY) from 1/29/93 (the earliest available) through 2/29/08, we find that: Keep Reading