Objective research and reviews to aid investing decisions
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This web site presents models, research summaries, analyses and reviews designed for objective, unique and concise value to experienced investors and traders -- a modicum of actionable conclusions filtered from a very noisy environment. Our default approach is to challenge any and all conventional market wisdom with analytical skepticism.
Site Sections
Blog - Investing Notes records financial markets analyses and insights from an investor/trader perspective (not transient news). Many entries are summaries of academic papers. Normal update schedule is each trading day. The list in the header above offers short-cuts to topical cross-sections of the blog archives.
Stock Market Status provides the current bottom-line outlooks from our stock market models. Normal update schedule is after the close each trading day.
Real Earnings Yield Model presents the Real Earnings Yield Model of the stock market. Normal update schedule is approximately monthly as new data accumulates.
Reversion-to-Value Model describes our Reversion-to-Value Model of the stock market. Normal update schedule is approximately monthly as new data accumulates.
Earnings Trends provides an overview of aggregate S&P 500 operating earnings data/trends from other sources. Normal update schedule is every few weeks to incorporate new data.
Inflation Forecast provides a projection of the 12-month trailing inflation rate by month for the next year. Normal update schedule is monthly to incorporate new data.
Guru Grades offers a summary of the accuracies of various experts in predicting the behavior of the U.S. stock market, along with supporting notes and links to detailed evaluations. Normal update schedule is approximately weekly.
Trading Calendar provides typical full-year and monthly performance of the stock market (S&P 500 index) based on its average behavior since 1950 and 1990. Normal update schedule is monthly to incorporate new data.
Cartoons highlights those blog entries that have original cartoons that reinforce investment concepts and issues. This section has no regular update schedule.
Strategy Test describes and tracks the performance of an investment strategy that combines several potentially exploitable stock market premiums/anomalies. Normal update schedule is as required based on activity, and monthly to record performance.
About provides an overview of the CXO Advisory Group LLC. This section has no regular update schedule.
Latest Blog Entry
How strong and persistent are the effects of inflation rate and interest rate shocks on the stock market? In the May 2008 draft of their paper entitled "Inflation, Monetary Policy and Stock Market Conditions", Michael Bordo, Michael Dueker and David Wheelock quantify the extent to which various macroeconomic and policy shocks (industrial production, inflation, money supply growth, 10-year Treasury note yield and 3-month Treasury bill yield) explain the behavior of U.S. real stock prices and stock market conditions (trend) during the second half of the 20th century. Using monthly data for these variables and the S&P 500 index (as a proxy for stock prices) over the period August 1952 through December 2005, they conclude that:
For the full entry, go to
Blog - Investing Notes.
Latest Market Projection
Projected change in S&P 500 index as of the market close on 5/9/08...
For context and elaboration, go to
Stock Market Status.
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