Recent Investing Research

Have we entered an era when only the biggest firms can afford the massive investments needed to field hot, globally scalable technologies (e.g., artificial intelligence)? To investigate, we ask Grok to identify the 10 largest NASDAQ firms by market capitalization (Big 10) over the last 10 years. We then compare annual average next-year total returns… Keep Reading

Past research relating U.S. stock market returns to the party holding the Presidency mostly concludes that Democratic presidents are better for the stock market than Republican presidents. However, Presidents share power conferred by the electorate with Congress. Does historical data confirm that Democratic control of Congress is also better for stock market returns than Republican… Keep Reading

Below is a weekly summary of our research findings for 1/12/26 through 1/16/26. These summaries give you a quick snapshot of our content the past week so that you can quickly decide what’s relevant to your investing needs. Subscribers: To receive these weekly digests via email, click here to sign up for our mailing list.

“Exploiting the Presidential Cycle and Party in Power” summarizes strategies that hold small stocks (large stocks or bonds) when Democrats (Republicans) hold the U.S. presidency. How has this strategy performed in recent years? To investigate, we consider three strategy alternatives using exchange-traded funds (ETF): D-IWM:R-SPY: hold iShares Russell 2000 (IWM) when Democrats hold the presidency and SPDR… Keep Reading

How do exchange-traded-funds (ETF) focused on development of robotics-artificial intelligence (AI), an arguably hot area of technology, perform? To investigate, we consider eight of the largest such ETFs, all currently available, as follows: Robo Global Robotics and Automation Index ETF (ROBO) ARK Autonomous Technology & Robotics ETF (ARKQ) Global X Robotics & Artificial Intelligence ETF (BOTZ) First Trust… Keep Reading

The full-year Trading Calendar indicates that the U.S. stock market has three phases over the calendar year, corresponding to calendar year trading days 1-84 (January-April), 85-210 (May-October) and 211-252 (November-December). What are typical stock market returns and return variabilities for these phases? Using daily S&P 500 Index closes from the end of December 1927 through… Keep Reading

The Inflation Forecast now incorporates actual total and core Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for December 2025. The actual total (core) inflation rate is about the same as (about the same as) forecasted. We have also updated the inflation seasonality chart through 2025.

Does lack of critical assessment of cause and effect undermine reliability of findings in scientific research? In his December 2025 presentation package entitled “Investment Lessons from Cosmology: Draw Your Assumptions Before Your Conclusions”, Marcos Lopez de Prado describes how recent developments in cosmology demonstrate the potential power of causal inference to prevent false discoveries in… Keep Reading

Time-series momentum (TSMOM) is a well-documented finding that past returns predict next-period returns for many asset types. Is the relationship between past and future performance linear? In their December 2025 paper entitled “Nonlinear Time Series Momentum”, Tobias Moskowitz, Riccardo Sabbatucci, Andrea Tamoni and Björn Uhl compare a TSMOM trading strategy with non-linear weights to: (1)… Keep Reading

Below is a weekly summary of our research findings for 1/5/26 through 1/9/26. These summaries give you a quick snapshot of our content the past week so that you can quickly decide what’s relevant to your investing needs. Subscribers: To receive these weekly digests via email, click here to sign up for our mailing list.