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Commonly Cited Economic and Sentiment Indicators

The following list summarizes research available on CXOadvisory.com for economic and sentiment variables commonly tracked as potential indicators of future stock market behavior. The list includes for each potential indicator:

Source
Measurement interval and release timing
A link or links to analysis of effectiveness as a stock return predictor

Order is from most frequent to least frequent.

Indicator Keyword Filter:

Initial Unemployment Claims
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)	Frequency: Weekly	Schedule: Thursday for prior week
CXOAdvisory.com Analysis: Stock Returns on Days of Unemployment Claims Reports

Weekly Leading Index
Source: Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI)	Frequency: Weekly	Schedule: Friday for prior week, with revision to previous week
CXOAdvisory.com Analysis: ECRI’s Weekly Leading Index and the Stock Market

ADP Employment Report
Source: Automatic Data Processing, Inc.(ADP)	Frequency: Monthly	Schedule: Two days before BLS release
CXOAdvisory.com Analysis: ADP Employment Report and Stock Returns

Purchasing Manager's Index (PMI)
Source: Institute for Supply Management (ISM)	Frequency: Monthly	Schedule: First business day of month for prior month
CXOAdvisory.com Analysis: ISM PMI and Stock Returns

Non-Manufacturing Index (NMI)
Source: Institute for Supply Management (ISM)	Frequency: Monthly	Schedule: Third business day of month for prior month
CXOAdvisory.com Analysis: ISM NMI and Stock Returns

Employment (non-farm)
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)	Frequency: Monthly	Schedule: Third business day of month for prior month
CXOAdvisory.com Analysis: Employment and Stocks Over the Intermediate Term

Unemployment Rate
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)	Frequency: Monthly	Schedule: Third business day of month for prior month
CXOAdvisory.com Analysis: Unemployment Rate and Stock Returns

Producer Price Index
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)	Frequency: Monthly	Schedule: Mid-month for prior month
CXOAdvisory.com Analysis: PPI and the Stock Market

Consumer Price Index
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)	Frequency: Monthly	Schedule: Mid-month for prior month
CXOAdvisory.com Analysis: CPI and Stocks Over the Short and Intermediate Terms Public Debt, Inflation and the Stock Market Inflation Rate Forecast Stock Market Earnings Yield and Inflation Over the Long Run Effects of Inflation Rate Trend and Volatility on Stock Returns

Industrial Production
Source: Federal Reserve	Frequency: Monthly	Schedule: Mid-month for prior month
CXOAdvisory.com Analysis: Industrial Production as a Predictor of Stock Returns

New Home Sales
Source: Census Bureau	Frequency: Monthly	Schedule: Late month for prior month
CXOAdvisory.com Analysis: New Home Sales and Future Stock Returns

Leading Economic Index
Source: Conference Board	Frequency: Monthly	Schedule: Late in month for prior month, with revision to previous month or two
CXOAdvisory.com Analysis: Leading Economic Index and the Stock Market

Diposable Personal Income
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA)	Frequency: Monthly	Schedule: Near end of month for prior month
CXOAdvisory.com Analysis: Disposable Income and the Stock Market

Personal Consumption Expenitures
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA)	Frequency: Monthly	Schedule: Near end of month for prior month
CXOAdvisory.com Analysis: Personal Consumption Expenditures and the Stock Market

Margin Debt
Source: New York Stock Exchange (NYSE)	Frequency: Monthly	Schedule: More than one month after report month
CXOAdvisory.com Analysis: Margin Debt as a Stock Market Indicator

Distress Index
Source: Foundation for Economic Education	Frequency: Monthly	Schedule: More than one month after report month
CXOAdvisory.com Analysis: Distress Index and Stock Returns

Consumer Credit
Source: Federal Reserve	Frequency: Monthly	Schedule: Early in month for two months prior
CXOAdvisory.com Analysis: Consumer Credit and Stock Returns

M1 Money Supply
Source: Federal Reserve	Frequency: Monthly	Schedule: Early in month for two months prior
CXOAdvisory.com Analysis: Money Supply (M1) and the Stock Market

M2 Money Supply
Source: Federal Reserve	Frequency: Monthly	Schedule: Early in month for two months prior
CXOAdvisory.com Analysis: Money Supply (M2) and the Stock Market

Federal Funds Rate
Source: Federal Reserve	Frequency: Ad Hoc	Schedule: Ad Hoc
CXOAdvisory.com Analysis: Federal Funds Rate and the Stock Market Stock Returns Around Dates of FFR Changes Federal Funds Rate Size Effect?

Credit Standards
Source: Federal Reserve	Frequency: Quarterly	Schedule: Early in month after report month
CXOAdvisory.com Analysis: Credit Standard Changes and Future Stock Market Returns

Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA)	Frequency: Quarterly	Schedule: Three iterations starting about a month after quarter end
CXOAdvisory.com Analysis: GDP Growth and Stock Market Returns

Personal Savings Rate
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA)	Frequency: Quarterly	Schedule: About a month after quarter end
CXOAdvisory.com Analysis: Personal Savings Rate and the Stock Market

Productivity
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)	Frequency: Quarterly	Schedule: Preliminary about a month after quarter end and final about two months after quarter end
CXOAdvisory.com Analysis: Productivity and the Stock Market

Anxious Index
Source: Federal Reserve	Frequency: Quarterly	Schedule: About 1.5 month after quarter end
CXOAdvisory.com Analysis: Should the "Anxious Index" Make Investors Anxious?

Public Debt
Source: Treasury	Frequency: Annual	Schedule: After end of fiscal year (9/30) for prior year
CXOAdvisory.com Analysis: Public Debt, Inflation and the Stock Market

Federal Deficit
Source: Office of Management and Budget (OMB)	Frequency: Annual	Schedule: With federal budget cycle
CXOAdvisory.com Analysis: Federal Deficit and Stock Returns