Can analysts, experts and gurus really give you an investing/trading edge? Should you track the advice of as many as possible? Are there ways to tell good ones from bad ones? Recent research indicates that the average “expert” has little to offer individual investors/traders. Finding exceptional advisers is no easier than identifying outperforming stocks. Indiscriminately seeking the output of as many experts as possible is a waste of time. Learning what makes a good expert accurate is worthwhile.
March 13, 2005 - Investing Expertise
In his December 2004 paper, Michael Cliff examines the period 1994-2003 to answer the following question: “Do Independent Analysts Provide Superior Stock Recommendations?” For his investigation, “independent” means not involved in an investment banking relationship between one year before and two years after a recommendation. He finds that: Keep Reading
February 2, 2005 - Investing Expertise, Mutual/Hedge Funds
In the February 2005 issue of The Financial Review, Burton Malkiel offers “Reflections on the Efficient Market Hypothesis: 30 Years Later” as a pudding-based proof of his famous proposition. He pits the performance of professional investment managers against that of market indices and finds that: Keep Reading
November 19, 2004 - Investing Expertise
Should investors follow the recommendations of experts in picking stocks? Consider the findings in a April 2001 paper entitled “Can Investors Profit from the Prophets? Security Analyst Recommendations and Stock Returns” by Brad Barber, Reuven Lehavy, Maureen McNichols and Brett Trueman. Using the Zacks database for the period 1986 through 1996, they conclude that: Keep Reading