Recent Investing Research

The Inflation Forecast now incorporates actual total and core Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for August 2026. The actual total (core) inflation rate is a little higher than (slightly lower than) forecasted.

One concern about simple momentum strategies is data snooping bias impounded in selection of a lookback interval to measure asset momentum. To circumvent this concern, we consider the following argument: The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) broadly indicates the level of financial markets distress and thereby the tendency of investors to act complacently (when VIX is… Keep Reading

A subscriber suggested adding a simple 1-month or 3-month momentum filter to the BGSV portfolio, which each month rebalances to equal weight the following three very risky assets: Grayscale Bitcoin Trust ETF (GBTC), an indirect Bitcoin holding. SPDR Gold Shares (GLD), an indirect gold holding. ProShares Short VIX Short-Term Futures ETF (SVXY), to capture part… Keep Reading

Is the evolving set of artificial intelligence (AI) platforms based on large language models interesting with regard to identifying U.S. election investment implications? Are they monolithic, or diverse? As a simple exploration, we pose to each of Grok, ChatGPT, Claude, Perplexity and Gemini the following prompt about the attractiveness of industries/niches for different midterm election… Keep Reading

A subscriber asked whether the Turn-of-the-Month (TOTM) effect applies to currencies. To investigate, as in the past, we define TOTM as the interval from the close five trading days before to the close four trading days after the last trading day of the month (a total of eight trading days, centered on the monthly close)…. Keep Reading

Below is a weekly summary of our research findings for 8/31/26 through 9/4/26. These summaries give you a quick snapshot of our content the past week so that you can quickly decide what’s relevant to your investing needs. Subscribers: To receive these weekly digests via email, click here to sign up for our mailing list.

Does the Turn-of-the-Month Effect, a concentration of positive stock market returns around the turns of calendar months, work across a broad set of asset classes. To investigate, we measure turn-of-the-month (TOTM) returns for the following 10 asset class exchange-traded funds (ETF) used in the “Simple Asset Class ETF Momentum Strategy” and the “Simple Asset Class ETF Value… Keep Reading

A reader inquired whether the Turn-of-the-Month Effect, a concentration of positive stock market returns around the turns of calendar months, works for U.S. stock market sectors. To investigate, we measure turn-of-the-month (TOTM) returns for the nine sector exchange-traded funds (ETF) defined by the Select Sector Standard & Poor’s Depository Receipts (SPDR), all of which have… Keep Reading

In “Methodology Changes”, we noted implementation of an “Investing Research Sweep” via Claude to mitigate a markedly lower perceived signal-to-noise ratio from the Social Science Research Network (SSRN). In this follow-up, we ask our artificial intelligence (AI) Panel to assess the perception. Specifically, we pose to each of Grok, ChatGPT, Claude, Perplexity and Gemini the following prompt: Please concisely assess in… Keep Reading

Does the Labor Day holiday, marking the end of summer distractions, signal unusual return effects by refocusing U.S. stock investors on managing their portfolios? By its definition, this holiday brings with it any effects from the turn of the month. To investigate the possibility of short-term effects on stock market returns around Labor Day, we… Keep Reading

We have updated monthly allocations and performance data for the Simple Asset Class ETF Momentum Strategy (SACEMS) and the Simple Asset Class ETF Value Strategy (SACEVS). We have also updated performance data for the Combined Value-Momentum Strategy. We have updated the Trading Calendar to incorporate data for August 2026.

The home page, Simple Asset Class ETF Momentum Strategy (SACEMS) and Simple Asset Class ETF Value Strategy (SACEVS) now show preliminary positions for September 2026. Past returns for the top assets are closely bunched, so SACEMS rankings could change by the close. SACEVS allocations are unlikely to change by the close.