Investing Research Articles

…stock market booms arise from the confluence of strong economic growth and low inflation. Excessive (?) monetary policy reaction to rising inflation kills the booms.

We evaluate here the weekly “Ahead of the Curve” columns in SmartMoney.com since August 2001 (the earliest available). The author, Don Luskin, is the Chief Investment Officer for Trend Macrolytics LLC. The table below quotes forecast highlights from the cited source and shows the performance of the S&P 500 Index over various numbers of trading days… Keep Reading

…an oil price shock can be good, bad or indifferent for the overall U.S. stock market according to the cause of the shock. A shock driven by global economic expansion is a good sign for stocks.

…investors may be able to exploit a two-year reversion effect signaled by past returns of the broad value-weighted U.S. stock market.

…spectral analysis confirms the probable existence of U.S. stock market cycles that coincide with election cycles.

As suggested by a reader, we evaluate here the commentaries of Robert McHugh, Ph.D., at Safe Haven since February 2004 (the earliest we can find). Robert McHugh is president of Main Line Investors, Inc., a registered investment advisor in the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania “dedicated to the preservation of capital in turbulent economic times, while offering… Keep Reading

…evidence from many studies indicates that confirmation bias is substantial, with defensiveness outweighing desire for accuracy in driving a preference for confirming over disconfirming information. Individual investors may want to counteract this bias by doubling efforts to consider information in conflict with their beliefs.

…Mr. Bennett would recommend focusing long-term, non-U.S. investments in Australia, Britain, Canada, Ireland, New Zealand and perhaps South Africa and India. “The Anglosphere is where the action is going to be.”

As suggested by readers, we evaluate here Douglas Kass’ outlooks for the U.S. stock market since mid-2006 as extracted from his Seabreeze Partners blog. Douglas Kass is founder and President of Seabreeze Partners Management, Inc., which “specializes in the management of alternative investment products.” He writes regularly for TheStreet.com (apparently the source of blog articles) and appears frequently… Keep Reading

What happens after extreme up days or extreme down days for the U.S. stock market? To investigate, we define extreme up or down days as those with daily returns at least X standard deviations above or below the average daily return over the past four years (the U.S. political cycle, about 1,000 trading days). This… Keep Reading