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Investing Research Articles

84 Research Articles

Presidential Politics and Industry Returns

…evidence does not support a belief that investors can generate excess returns using an industry allocation strategy based on U.S. presidential politics. Equity return anomalies based on party holding the presidency and presidential term year are marketwide phenomena.

Oil Price Shocks and the Stock Market: The Good, the Bad and the Indifferent

…an oil price shock can be good, bad or indifferent for the overall U.S. stock market according to the cause of the shock. A shock driven by global economic expansion is a good sign for stocks.

A Two-Year Reversion Effect?

…investors may be able to exploit a two-year reversion effect signaled by past returns of the broad value-weighted U.S. stock market.

Spectral Analysis of Stock Market Cyclicality

…spectral analysis confirms the probable existence of U.S. stock market cycles that coincide with election cycles.

“It’s the P/E, Stupid!”

…stock market P/E and presidential approval rating are significantly intertwined.

Overview of Confirmation Bias

…evidence from many studies indicates that confirmation bias is substantial, with defensiveness outweighing desire for accuracy in driving a preference for confirming over disconfirming information. Individual investors may want to counteract this bias by doubling efforts to consider information in conflict with their beliefs.

Focus Investment in Foreign Markets?

…Mr. Bennett would recommend focusing long-term, non-U.S. investments in Australia, Britain, Canada, Ireland, New Zealand and perhaps South Africa and India. “The Anglosphere is where the action is going to be.”

A Few Notes on Probability Theory, The Logic of Science

“…[T]he human mind has a predilection for rampant, uncontrolled induction, and it requires much education to overcome this.”

Warren Buffett on Investing

Does Warren Buffett consistently keep Berkshire Hathaway in market-beating form? If so, how does he do it? In his annual letters to stockholders, he includes company performance and benchmark data and describes in general terms how he goes about investing. He sometimes shares his thoughts on the current state of and prospects for the U.S…. Keep Reading

How About Puru Saxena?

…publicly available information does not support an assessment of Puru Saxena’s investing performance.