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Investing Research Articles

84 Research Articles

A Few Notes on Trading Realities

Author Jeff Augen describes his 2010 book Trading Realities: The Truth, the Lies, and the Hype In-Between as “designed to help investors understand the economic and political forces that drive financial markets and to invest alongside those forces instead of against them. It also provides a blunt assessment of the limitations that most private investors… Keep Reading

Disagree with Me? Idiot! Liar! Basher! Pumper!

…stock message boards, used with caution, have some value.

Don Luskin: Can He Make You Rich and Smart?

We evaluate here the weekly “Ahead of the Curve” columns in SmartMoney.com since August 2001 (the earliest available). The author, Don Luskin, is the Chief Investment Officer for Trend Macrolytics LLC. The table below quotes forecast highlights from the cited source and shows the performance of the S&P 500 Index over various numbers of trading days… Keep Reading

Robert McHugh: Caution Is Warranted?

As suggested by a reader, we evaluate here the commentaries of Robert McHugh, Ph.D., at Safe Haven since February 2004 (the earliest we can find). Robert McHugh is president of Main Line Investors, Inc., a registered investment advisor in the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania “dedicated to the preservation of capital in turbulent economic times, while offering… Keep Reading

Does Outlook Have Insight?

We evaluate here the weekly “The Outlook” column in BusinessWeek online by Standard and Poor’s since May 2003 (the earliest available). According to Standard & Poor’s, “‘The Outlook‘ is a unique investment advisory service…[that] provides solid research, unbiased investment ideas and market perspective… [It] presents investment information and advice in a concise way that helps… Keep Reading

Steve Saville: From the Top Down

As suggested by two readers, we review here the U.S. stock market forecasts of Steve Saville at Safe Haven since March 2003. Steve Saville is the editor of The Speculative Investor. His forecasts “are conceived by integrating the analysis of fundamental, technical, psychological, monetary and political factors…” with “…dual focuses on the stock market (primarily… Keep Reading

Gary Shilling: A Dozen Reasons To Worry

As suggested by a reader, we evaluate here the Forbes.com commentary of Gary Shilling regarding the broad U.S. stock market since the beginning of 2000. Gary Shilling is founder of A. Gary Shilling & Company, Inc., which uses a “top down” approach, “emphasizing the major themes, developed from our economic, financial, and political analysis, that… Keep Reading

Should Investors Care About “the Way Things Are Going”?

Are broad measures of public sociopolitical sentiment relevant to investors? Do they predict stock returns as indicators of exuberance and fear? To investigate, we relate S&P 500 Index return and 12-month trailing S&P 500 price-operating earnings ratio (P/E) to the percentage of respondents saying “yes” to the recurring Gallup polling question: “In general, are you… Keep Reading

Party in Power and Stock Returns

Past research relating U.S. stock market returns to the party holding the Presidency mostly concludes that Democratic presidents are better for the stock market than Republican presidents. However, Presidents share power conferred by the electorate with Congress. Does historical data confirm that Democratic control of Congress is also better for stock market returns than Republican… Keep Reading

Tobin Smith’s Fearless Forecasts

We evaluate here Tobin Smith’s weekly “WaveWire” commentary at ChangeWave.com since May 2000. Tobin Smith is founder and editor of ChangeWave Investing and author of related books, with a presence on radio and television. ChangeWave Investing is a service of ChangeWave Research, which “provides real world, real-time data and insight into the future performance of… Keep Reading