Investing Research Articles

…even though S&P 500 index timing rules based on fundamental indicators and investor sentiment indicators might significantly beat a buy-and-hold benchmark when evaluated in isolation, this outperformance generally evaporates after correcting for data snooping bias. In other words, luck is the dominant differentiator of rule performance.

…finance and economics professors on average currently estimate that investors require an annual excess return from equities in the range 5% to 7%.

Do individuals who use investment advisors achieve higher returns than those who do not? Two closely related papers entitled “Investment Advice and Individual Investor Portfolio Performance” of January 2009 by Marc Kramer and “The Impact of Financial Advisors on Individual Investor Portfolio Performance” of March 2012 by Marc Kramer and Robert Lensink address this question…. Keep Reading

…the way to survive the fat-tailedness of investment returns is through limiting exposure to such investments.

…evidence from this 19th century test supports belief in the persistence of the size effect and the value premium for equities.

As suggested by a reader, we evaluate here the intermediate-term S&P 500 index calls of Tim Ord via MarketWeb since 1/20/06. Tim Ord is is president, editor and publisher of The Ord Oracle, “devoted to the practice of supply and demand trading” using “a new kind of charting program designed for showing supply and demand… Keep Reading

…the portfolio returns of “Strategy Lab” participants since late 2001 vary widely, but aggregate results offer some support for the belief that experts on average can consistently outperform the broad stock market.

Is firm total asset growth rate an independently valuable indicator of future stock returns? In their January 2009 paper entitled “The Asset Growth Effect in Stock Returns”, Michael Cooper, Huseyin Gulen and Michael Schill review the evidence for a strong asset growth effect in U.S. stock returns unexplained by other widely cited effects. Using firm… Keep Reading

…stocks of companies with relatively high (low) cash-to-asset ratios tend to outperform (underperform).

…evidence from limited tests does not support a belief that the Mutual Fund Research Newsletter quarterly asset class allocation recommendations have any market timing value.