Investing Research Articles

A reader requested a test of the following hypothesis from the article “Gold’s Bluff – Is a 30 Percent Drop Next?” [no longer available]: “Ironically, gold is more than just a hedge against market turmoil. Gold is actually one of the most accurate indicators of the stock market’s long-term direction. The Dow Jones measured in gold is a… Keep Reading

Below is a weekly summary of our research findings for 11/11/24 through 11/15/24. These summaries give you a quick snapshot of our content the past week so that you can quickly decide what’s relevant to your investing needs. Subscribers: To receive these weekly digests via email, click here to sign up for our mailing list.

How do exchange-traded-funds (ETF) focused on Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) perform? To investigate, we consider ten of the largest TIP ETFs, all currently available, as follows: iShares TIPS (TIP) Schwab U.S. TIPS (SCHP) Vanguard Short-Term Inflation-Protected Securities (VTIP) iShares 0-5 Year TIPS (STIP) SPDR Portfolio TIPS (SPIP) FlexShares iBoxx 3-Year Target Duration TIPS Index (TDTT)… Keep Reading

How have different asset classes recently interacted with the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX)? To investigate, we look at lead-lag relationships between VIX and returns for each of the following 10 exchange-traded fund (ETF) asset class proxies: Equities: SPDR S&P 500 (SPY) iShares Russell 2000 Index (IWM) iShares MSCI EAFE Index (EFA) iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Index… Keep Reading

The Inflation Forecast now incorporates actual total and core Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for October 2024. The actual total (core) inflation rate is a little lower than (a little lower than) forecasted.

Does degree of co-movement among commodity exchange-traded funds (ETF) predict whether momentum or reversal is imminent? In their September 2024 paper entitled “How to Improve Commodity Momentum Using Intra-Market Correlation”, Radovan Vojtko and Margaréta Pauchlyová investigate whether the relationship between short-term and long-term average pairwise return correlations indicates when to pursue momentum and when to… Keep Reading

Is there a reliable and material market capitalization (size) effect among U.S. stocks around the turn-of-the-year (TOTY)? To check, we track cumulative returns from 20 trading days before through 20 trading days after the end of the calendar year for the Russell 2000 Index, the S&P 500 Index and the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA)… Keep Reading

When the U.S. government runs substantial deficits, some experts proclaim the dollar’s inevitable inflationary debasement and bad times for stocks. Other experts say that deficits are no cause for alarm, because government spending stimulates the economy, and the country can bear more debt. Who is right? Using quarterly nominal level of the U.S. public debt, interest… Keep Reading

Below is a weekly summary of our research findings for 11/4/24 through 11/8/24. These summaries give you a quick snapshot of our content the past week so that you can quickly decide what’s relevant to your investing needs. Subscribers: To receive these weekly digests via email, click here to sign up for our mailing list.

How can the low-volatility effect, whereby stocks with low past volatility tend to outperform the market on a risk-adjusted basis (but lag during long bull markets), help achieve common investment goals? In their October 2024 paper entitled “Leveraging the Low-Volatility Effect”, Lodewijk van der Linden, Amar Soebhag and Pim van Vliet test ways to use… Keep Reading