Investing Research Articles

A subscriber requested a test of holding Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ) during November through April and idle cash during May through October. Informed by the Trading Calendar, we consider four strategies: QQQ – buy and hold QQQ. QQQ Seasonal (Idle Cash) – hold QQQ during November through April and idle cash during May through October,… Keep Reading

Below is a weekly summary of our research findings for 10/30/23 through 11/3/23. These summaries give you a quick snapshot of our content the past week so that you can quickly decide what’s relevant to your investing needs. Subscribers: To receive these weekly digests via email, click here to sign up for our mailing list.

Are there ways to revive the fading performance of the short-term reversal (STR) strategy, which is long stocks with the lowest returns last month and short stocks with the highest? In their September 2023 paper entitled “Reversing the Trend of Short-Term Reversal”, David Blitz, Bart van der Grient and Iman Honarvar investigate revival of the… Keep Reading

Is public saving rate a leading indicator of the stock market? Arguably, an increase (decrease) in saving rate means a shift away from (toward) consumption, corporate earnings and associated stock value. The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) releases seasonally adjusted Personal Saving Rate (PSR) monthly with a lag of about one month for initial release… Keep Reading

A reader asked: “Is disposable income a leading indicator of the stock market?” Arguably, an increase in disposable income could spur consumption, corporate earnings and associated stock values. The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) releases seasonally adjusted Disposable Personal Income (DPI) monthly with a lag of about one month for initial release and two additional… Keep Reading

We have updated monthly allocations and performance data for the Simple Asset Class ETF Momentum Strategy (SACEMS) and the Simple Asset Class ETF Value Strategy (SACEVS). We have also updated performance data for the Combined Value-Momentum Strategy. We have updated the Trading Calendar to incorporate data for October 2023.

The home page, Simple Asset Class ETF Momentum Strategy (SACEMS) and Simple Asset Class ETF Value Strategy (SACEVS) now show preliminary positions for November 2023. SACEMS rankings probably will not change by the close. SACEVS allocations probably will not change by the close.

Does a simple relative momentum strategy applied to tradable U.S. Treasury term structure proxies produce attractive results by picking the best duration for exploiting the current interest rate trend? To investigate, we run short-term and long-term tests. The short-term test employs five exchange-traded funds (ETF) to represent the term structure: SPDR Barclays 1-3 Month T-Bill… Keep Reading

Do target retirement date funds, offering glidepaths that shift asset allocations away from equities and toward bonds as target dates approach, safely generate attractive returns? To investigate, we consider seven such mutual funds offered by Vanguard, as follows: Vanguard Target Retirement 2020 Fund (VTWNX) Vanguard Target Retirement 2025 Fund (VTTVX) Vanguard Target Retirement 2030 Fund… Keep Reading

Below is a weekly summary of our research findings for 10/23/23 through 10/27/23. These summaries give you a quick snapshot of our content the past week so that you can quickly decide what’s relevant to your investing needs. Subscribers: To receive these weekly digests via email, click here to sign up for our mailing list.