Investing Research Articles

…an oil price shock can be good, bad or indifferent for the overall U.S. stock market according to the cause of the shock. A shock driven by global economic expansion is a good sign for stocks.

…Regulation FD and the Global Analyst Research Settlements helped reduce earnings forecast bias by neutralizing conflicts of interests for equity analysts.

…testing indicates that the daily stated positions for the next trading day from Palisades Research have no power to predict next-day stock market returns.

…investors who believe that they can find fund managers who reliably generate alpha should consider the enhanced alpha for higher fee trade-off of 130/30 funds.

…investors should beware of the favorite equity investments of stock market newsletter gurus. Many favorites may be swing-for-the-fences speculations.

…inflation shocks significantly affected the U.S. stock market over the past half century, with disinflation (inflation) shocks increasing (decreasing) stock prices and promoting boom (bust) conditions.

…traders may be able to exploit an attention-driven anomaly for very high momentum stocks by going long from five days before to the morning after earnings announcement and short the next five days.

…while of little value to traders, the industrial production (output) gap may have some meaningful predictive power for broad U.S. stock returns over relatively long periods.

…large speculators in commodity futures generally do make money by exploiting risk premiums derived from the theory of storage (and perhaps from momentum trading).

…the high correlation between equity yield and bond yield derives rationally from the tendency for inflation to be elevated during recessions, such that both equity and bond premiums are relatively high during recessions.