Investing Research Articles

…earnings acceleration helps explain stock returns, most notably when it amplifies the direction of earnings growth (both positive or both negative).

…there is a tendency for stocks worldwide to reprise their monthly return behavior every 12 months, with intracycle reversals, over periods of many years. Results suggest calendar-connected market structures.

…a small-stock buy-and-hold approach benefits fully from upside volatility (beta) but does not suffer the entire penalty of downside volatility.

…forecasters trying to beat other forecasters tend to take extreme public positions that reflect the motivational bias of competition. An investor considering the public forecasts of gurus should probably shift asserted probabilities away from 0% and 100% toward 50%.

…Benjamin Graham-style value investing still works but is more difficult to execute than in the past because severe undervaluation has become rarer.

…it appears that some short selling is manipulative, seeking to scare other traders out of their holdings during sharp but temporary engineered price drops.

…there is an “information risk premium” such that stocks not covered by the news media yield significantly higher future returns than stocks heavily covered, even after accounting for other widely used risk factors.

…hedge fund managers seem to be no better at long-equity investing than mutual fund managers; they do not outperform the market.

…share repurchase announcements persist as good indicators of stock undervaluation, most significantly amplified by poor returns over the prior six months.

…the sentiment of institutional (private) investors probably has some (no) value in predicting stock market returns over a six-month horizon.