Investing Research Articles

…long-term stock market timing models may enhance investment returns, especially on a risk-adjusted basis. Which model is best depends on the risk-adjustment metric used.

A rare sighting…

…”normal” statistical metrics and associated risk management methods do not work in the realm of Black Swans (including financial markets). Redundancy, not optimization, helps manage risk in this realm.

…the Darlings of the Dow strategy offered solid returns over the short post-publication period of 2002-2007, but the level of data mining bias in these returns is unknown and strategy adjustments have impaired out-of-sample testing.

…investors/traders may be able to earn significant abnormal returns by following the lead of short sellers when the short sellers disagree with expert equity analysts (short sellers know best).

…equity returns may react quickly to some predictors and slowly to others, and they may respond most strongly to short or extended predictor movements. “Standardized” approaches to predictor interval measurement may not work.

We evaluate here the weekly “The Outlook” column in BusinessWeek online by Standard and Poor’s since May 2003 (the earliest available). According to Standard & Poor’s, “‘The Outlook‘ is a unique investment advisory service…[that] provides solid research, unbiased investment ideas and market perspective… [It] presents investment information and advice in a concise way that helps… Keep Reading

…the well-known stock market anomalies may be much less reliable in rational practice than they appear in hindsight.

…investors may be able to exploit time variation of the value premium based on the state of the economy, moving out of (into) value as recessions approach (end).

…traders may be able to exploit systematic one-week reversals in the prices of small stocks making 52-week lows.