Investing Research Articles

…evidence indicates that large (diversified) hedge fund investors may be able to exploit multiple predictive factors by averaging their predictive powers to enhance returns derived from selecting recent past winners.

…evidence from simple tests suggest that junk bond mutual funds exhibit return momentum perhaps exploitable via a multi-asset class allocation strategy (but not a standalone timing strategy).

Two charts added to “Market Models”, a backtest of the 6-month forecasts and a current valuation map, offer context for the projections from the Reversion-to-Value (RTV) Model and the Real Earnings Yield (REY) Model of the U.S. stock market.

…evidence from German stocks supports belief in the pervasiveness of a momentum effect and perhaps a value premium, but not market beta and size effects. Any sentiment effect is likely weak, specific to susceptible stocks and concentrated in intervals after very low sentiment.

…evidence from simple tests does not support application of the counter trend trade to the broad U.S. stock market.

…evidence indicates that investors may be able to exploit momentum in U.S. corporate bond returns by focusing on past winners among low-grade issues.

…given the fairly small size of any abnormalities, standard deviations of returns that are much larger than any abnormalities and the rareness of signals, it seems unlikely that a trader could materially exploit bullish and bearish engulfing candlesticks for the S&P 500 Index at the portfolio level.

In his 2010 book entitled Harmonic Trading: Volume Two Advanced Strategies for Profiting from the Natural Order of the Financial Markets, author Scott Carney “offers unprecedented strategies that identify the areas where overall trend divergence and harmonic pattern completions define the most critical technical levels. In addition, the new ideas presented in this material advance… Keep Reading

…Harmonic Trading: Volume One describes an approach to developing expectations for the behavior of financial asset and asset class prices based on the belief that these prices naturally follow trajectories (form patterns) generated by a process governed by Fibonacci ratios. Although the book offers many examples of pattern analysis, it does not quantify the benefits of such analysis in terms of per-trade or portfolio level profitability.

…evidence from the most credible models of the historical U.S. equity risk premium converge to an annual value in the range 4% to 4.5% during 1872-1950 and 1951-2008.