Investing Research Articles

Can state-of-the-art artificial intelligence (AI) applications such as GPT-4, trained on the text of billions of web documents, provide sound financial advice? In their June 2023 paper entitled “Using GPT-4 for Financial Advice”, Christian Fieberg, Lars Hornuf and David Streich test the ability of GPT-4 to provide suitable portfolio allocations for four investor profiles: 30… Keep Reading

Do companies that make the strongest commitments to diversity, equity and inclusion (DEI) generate attractive stock returns? In their April 2023 paper entitled “Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion”, Alex Edmans, Caroline Flammer and Simon Glossner relate DEI to future firm performance and stock returns. They measure firm DEI based on 250 confidential employee responses to 13… Keep Reading

Is the ability of the VIX percentile threshold rule described in “Using VIX and Investor Sentiment to Explain Stock Market Returns” to explain future stock market excess return in-sample readily exploitable out-of-sample? To investigate, we test a strategy (VIX Percentile Strategy) that each month holds SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) or 3-month U.S. Treasury… Keep Reading

Do stock market return volatility (as a measure of risk) and aggregate investor sentiment (as a measure of risk tolerance) work well jointly to explain stock market returns? In their June 2023 paper entitled “Time-varying Equity Premia with a High-VIX Threshold and Sentiment”, Naresh Bansal and Chris Stivers investigate the in-sample power an optimal CBOE… Keep Reading

Below is a weekly summary of our research findings for 7/3/23 through 7/7/23. These summaries give you a quick snapshot of our content the past week so that you can quickly decide what’s relevant to your investing needs. Subscribers: To receive these weekly digests via email, click here to sign up for our mailing list.

How do recent advances in Generative Artificial Intelligence (AI), as epitomized by ChatGPT, impact firm valuations? In their May 2023 paper entitled “Generative AI and Firm Values”, Andrea Eisfeldt, Gregor Schubert and Miao Ben Zhang quantify workforce exposures to AI for publicly traded U.S. companies and translate those exposures into firm valuation effects. Specifically, they:… Keep Reading

Researchers applying machine learning to predict stock returns typically train their models on next-month returns, implicitly generating high turnover that negates gross outperformance. Does training such models on longer-term returns (with lower implicit turnovers) work better? In their June 2023 paper entitled “The Term Structure of Machine Learning Alpha”, David Blitz, Matthias Hanauer, Tobias Hoogteijling… Keep Reading

Subscribers asked why the Simple Asset Class ETF Value Strategy (SACEVS) signaled an apparently dramatic change in allocations at the end of June. SACEVS seeks a monthly tactical edge from timing three risk premiums associated with U.S. Treasury notes, corporate bonds and stocks: Term – monthly difference between the 10-year Constant Maturity U.S. Treasury note (T-note) yield… Keep Reading

Below is a weekly summary of our research findings for 6/26/23 through 6/30/23. These summaries give you a quick snapshot of our content the past week so that you can quickly decide what’s relevant to your investing needs. Subscribers: To receive these weekly digests via email, click here to sign up for our mailing list.

A subscriber asked about the performance of a strategy that each month rebalances to 60% international equities and 40% international corporate bonds (both non-U.S.), and how this performance compares to that of a portfolio that each month allocates 50% to Simple Asset Class ETF Value Strategy (SACEVS) Best Value and 50% to Simple Asset Class… Keep Reading