Testing the SMA21-to-SMA200 Ratio on the S&P 500 Index

“Distance Between Fast and Slow Price SMAs and Stock Returns” finds that extreme distance between a 21-trading day simple moving average (SMA21) and 200-trading day simple moving average (SMA200), as applied to individual U.S. stock price series, may be a useful stock return predictor. “Distance Between Fast and Slow Price SMAs and Country Stock Index Returns” finds that extreme distance between a 30-calendar day simple moving average and 300-calendar day simple moving average, as applied to country stock market indexes, may be a useful index return predictor. Do these findings apply the time series for the S&P 500 Index (SP500)? To investigate, we test relationships between the SMA21-SMA200 ratio for SP500, measured at month-ends, to SP500 future monthly returns. Using daily SP500 closing levels from the end of December 1927 through November 2024, we find that: (more…)