Can investors/speculators use equity options to boost return through buying and selling leverage (calls), and/or buying and selling insurance (puts)? If so, which strategies work best? These blog entries relate to trading equity options.
February 12, 2015 - Equity Options, Strategic Allocation
Is use of long-term stock index call options effective for those approaching retirement with desires of limiting exposure to crashes without sacrificing all benefit of equity exposure? In his January 2015 paper entitled “Individuals Approaching Retirement Have Options (Literally) to Secure a Comfortable Retirement”, Bryan Foltice proposes retirement strategies that employ stock index options during the five years before retirement (when prospective retirees tend to become very risk-averse) to limit equity risk while retaining some reward. These alternatives to conventional (100% stocks, 60%-40% stocks-bonds and 100% minus age in stocks) asset allocation strategies put core funds in Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) to secure retirement income at a real 75% of final working income and funds in excess of the core to buy long-term at-the-money stock index call options. He considers three option-based strategies:
- Buy 5-year options at age 60.
- Buy a 3-year option at age 60 and a 2-year option at age 63.
- Buy 1-year call options each year using the final five annual contributions.
Base modeling assumptions use 1928-2013 historical return statistics, with robustness tests assuming (1) an increased equity risk premium and (2) expectations derived from 2014 data through October. Modeling includes expected costs/fees. Using simulations based on estimates for U.S. stock market capital gains/dividends and for the TIPS real yield, he finds that: Keep Reading
October 7, 2014 - Equity Options, Volatility Effects
S&P 500 Index options data imply expected S&P 500 Index volatility (VIX) over the next month. In turn, VIX futures options data imply expected volatility of VIX (VVIX) over the next month. Does VVIX predict stock index option and VIX option returns? In their September 2014 paper entitled “Volatility-of-Volatility Risk”, Darien Huang and Ivan Shaliastovich investigate whether VVIX represents a time-varying risk affecting: (1) S&P 500 Index option returns above and beyond the risk represented by VIX; and (2) VIX futures option returns. They measure risk effects via returns on S&P 500 Index options hedged daily by shorting the S&P 500 Index and VIX futures options hedged daily by shorting VIX futures. Using monthly S&P 500 Index returns, VIX futures returns, VIX, VVIX, S&P 500 Index option prices and VIX option prices during February 2006 through June 2013, they find that: Keep Reading
June 5, 2014 - Equity Options
Do simple stock index option strategies (stock-covered calls, cash-covered puts and collars) outperform the underlying index? To investigate, we examine first the performance of the CBOE S&P 500 BuyWrite Index (BXM), the CBOE S&P 500 PutWrite Index (PUT) and the CBOE S&P 500 95-110 Collar Index (CLL), with the S&P 500 Total Return Index SPTR) as a benchmark. Since these series are modeled indexes rather than tradable assets, we then examine the relatively short records of exchange-traded funds (ETF) and notes (ETN) designed to track BXM, iPath CBOE S&P 500 BuyWrite Index ETN (BWV) and PowerShares S&P 500 BuyWrite (PBP), with SPDR S&P 500 (SPY) as a benchmark. Using end-of-month levels/total returns for SPTR, BXM, PUT and CLL since June 1986, and for SPY, BWV and PBP since December 2007 (limited by inception of PBP), all through April 2014, we find that: Keep Reading
March 20, 2014 - Equity Options
Do implications of equity option prices predict returns for underlying stocks? In their December 2013 paper entitled “Option-Implied Volatility Measures and Stock Return Predictability” Xi Fu, Eser Arisoy, Mark Shackleton and Mehmet Umutlu compare the abilities of various option-implied volatility metrics to predict returns for individual stocks at horizons of one to three months. Specifically, they consider:
- Call-Put Implied Volatility spread (CPIV): difference between at-the-money call and at-the-money put implied volatilities.
- Implied Volatility Skew (IVSKEW): difference between out-of-the-money put and at-the-money call implied volatilities.
- Above-Minus-Below (AMB): difference between average of in-the-money put and out-of-the-money call implied volatilities and average of in-the-money call and out-of-the-money put implied volatilities.
- Call Out-Minus-At (COMA): difference between out-of-the-money call and at-the-money call implied volatilities.
- Put Out-Minus-At (POMA): difference between out-of-the-money put and at-the-money put implied volatilities.
- Realized Volatility-Implied Volatility spread RVIV): difference between realized volatility (annualized standard deviation of daily returns over the previous month) and implied volatility.
Each month, they rank stocks into quintiles based on each of these six metrics. They then form respective capitalization-weighted and equal-weighted hedge portfolios that are long (short) the quintiles with the highest (lowest) values of each metric and hold for one month. They also perform regressions to control portfolio returns over one, two and three months for a variety of market, stock and option characteristics. Using firm financial statement data, monthly and daily stock returns and monthly option-implied volatilities (from options with maturities of one to three months) during February 1996 through December 2011 (191 months), they find that: Keep Reading
February 20, 2014 - Calendar Effects, Equity Options
Are there any stock market return/volatility anomalies around the equity option expiration (OE) day (third Friday of each month)? Potential anomalies include: (1) systematic differences in returns and volatilities before, on and after OE; and, (2) systematic differences in OE returns conditional on prior-month returns. To investigate, we examine close-to-close returns from five trading days before through five trading days after OE. Using daily closing prices for the S&P 500 Index for January 1990 through December 2013 (287 OEs, with September 2001 excluded due to trading disruption) and for the iPath S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures ETN (VXX) during January 2009 through December 2013 (59 OEs), we find that: Keep Reading
February 6, 2014 - Equity Options, Sentiment Indicators
Is the level of uncertainty among equity investors, as measured by the dispersion of S&P 500 Index option volume across strike prices, a useful predictor of stock market direction? In their January 2014 paper entitled “Stock Market Ambiguity and the Equity Premium”, Panayiotis Andreou, Anastasios Kagkadis, Paulo Maio and Dennis Philip investigate the ability of this dispersion in investor speculations (designated stock market “ambiguity”) to predict stock market returns. They argue that stock market ambiguity is a direct, forward-looking and readily computed indicator. They compare ambiguity to other commonly cited stock market predictors, with focus on the variance risk premium VRP). Using trading volumes for S&P 500 Index call and put options with maturities of 10 to 360 calendar days on the last trading day of each month, monthly data needed to calculate competing indicators and monthly returns for the broad U.S. stock market during 1996 through 2012, they find that: Keep Reading
October 31, 2013 - Equity Options, Volatility Effects
Is there exploitable feedback between stock returns and behaviors of associated options due to concentration of informed traders in one market or the other? In the October 2013 version of their paper entitled “The Joint Cross Section of Stocks and Options”, Byeong-Je An, Andrew Ang, Turan Baliand and Nusret Cakici investigate lead-lag relationships between stock returns and changes in associated option-implied volatilities. In case there is some asymmetry, they examine call option and put option implied volatilities separately. They focus on near-term options with delta of 0.5 and expiration in 30 days. Using daily stock returns and associated call and put option implied volatilities (available from OptionMetrics), firm fundamentals and risk adjustment factors during January 1996 through December 2011, they find that: Keep Reading
February 27, 2013 - Equity Options, Sentiment Indicators
The conventional wisdom is that a high (low) ratio of equity put option volume to equity call option volume is bullish (bearish) because it indicates that investors are overly pessimistic (optimistic). Alternative measurements of the U.S. equity market put-call ratio are total options, index options and individual equity options. Index and equity option buyers may have different motives. Alternative sources of put-call ratios are the Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE) and the International Securities Exchange (ISE). CBOE counts volumes for all options transactions. ISE relies on “a unique put/call value that only uses opening long customer transactions to calculate bullish/bearish market direction. Opening long transactions are thought to best represent market sentiment because investors often buy call and put options to express their actual market view of a particular stock. Market maker and firm trades, which are excluded, are not considered representative of true market sentiment due to their specialized nature. As such, the…calculation method allows for a more accurate measure of true investor sentiment…” Do the alternative put-call ratios confirm conventional wisdom? Using available historical daily data for CBOE and ISE total, index and equity option put-call ratios and contemporaneous dividend-adjusted levels of S&P Depository Receipts (SPY) through mid-February 2013, we find that: Keep Reading
February 5, 2013 - Equity Options, Volatility Effects
Does market underestimation of stock price uncertainty around earnings announcements support a short-term straddle strategy (call option and put option with matched strike and expiration, profitable with large stock price moves)? In their January 2013 paper entitled “Anticipating Uncertainty: Straddles Around Earnings Announcements”, Yuhang Xing and Xiaoyan Zhang investigate the performance of short-term, near-the-money straddles during intervals around earnings announcements. Short-term means no more than 60 days to expiration. Near-the-money means moneyness in the range 0.95 to 1.05. They focus on a delta-neutral straddle constructed by appropriately weighting the call and put positions at initiation, but they also consider a simple one call-one put alternative. They examine several straddle holding periods starting at the close five, three or one trading day before scheduled earnings announcement date and ending at the close on or one day after earnings announcement date. They calculate option returns based on the mid-point of the daily closing bid and ask as a fair option price (and require it to be at least $0.125). Using daily stock returns and option prices (with data filtered to exclude implausible data), along with contemporaneous quarterly firm fundamentals, during January 1996 through December 2010, they find that: Keep Reading
March 20, 2012 - Equity Options, Strategic Allocation
Are there strategic asset allocation methodologies that reliably beat equal weight? In the February 2012 version of their paper entitled “Portfolio Optimization Using Forward-Looking Information”, Alexander Kempf, Olaf Korn and Sven Sassning investigate the performance of a minimum variance portfolio based on returns implied by equity options rather than historical returns. They argue that, since option prices reflect the expectations of market participants, the former approach is inherently forward-looking. The methodology involves calculating option-implied volatilities and option-implied correlations. Using daily prices for the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) stocks and associated option-implied return statistics during 1998 through 2009 for out-of-sample testing, and DJIA stock prices for 1993 through 1997 for historical data tests, they find that: Keep Reading