Gold

What is fair value for gold, which has no earnings and pays no dividend? In their 2005 paper entitled “The Price of Gold: A Global Required Yield Theory”, Christophe Faugere and Julian Van Erlach present a model of gold valuation based on a view of gold as a global store of real (inflation-adjusted) wealth. This model generates the price of gold as a function of the global investment yield required to produce a constant real after-tax return equal to long-term real growth in global GDP per capita. Capital flows to (from) gold depend on decreases (increases) in expected returns from other asset classes. Using quarterly data over the period May 1979 through May 2002, they find that: Keep Reading

How effectively and consistently do equities, bonds, oil, gold and the dollar serve as hedges and safe havens for each other? In their September 2010 paper entitled “Hedges and Safe Havens – An Examination of Stocks, Bonds, Oil, Gold and the Dollar”, Cetin Ciner, Constantin Gurdgiev and Brian Lucey investigate pairwise hedging and safe haven relationships among these five major assets/asset classes. The define an asset as a hedge (safe haven) for another if respective returns are uncorrelated or negatively correlated on average over the long term (during relatively short intervals of stress). They define the long term (relatively short intervals) as their entire sample period (rolling four-month subperiods). They define intervals of stress as returns in the lowest fourth of observations. Using daily levels of the S&P 500 Index, an index of 10-year Treasuries, nearest-month gold and oil futures and the Federal Reserve Nominal Trade Weighted Effective Index for the dollar from January 1985 through October 2009 (nearly 25 years), they find that: Keep Reading

Is gold a prototypical hedge (based on average uncorrelated or negatively correlated behavior) and safe haven (based on uncorrelated or negatively correlated behavior during a market crash)? Two recent papers address this question. In the February 2009 update of their paper entitled “Is Gold a Hedge or a Safe Haven? An Analysis of Stocks, Bonds and Gold”, Dirk Baur and Brian Lucey examine the hedging/haven behavior of gold for stocks and bonds during normal market conditions and during extreme market events. In their September 2009 paper entitled “Is Gold a Safe Haven? International Evidence”, Dirk Baur and Thomas McDermott investigate whether gold represents a safe haven with respect to stocks of major emerging and developing countries. These studies conclude that: Keep Reading